Relative Intelligence · Treasury Bonds
How iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives
Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on TLT alone. It places TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) against 20+ popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where TLT stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.
Period covered: TLT's full trading record, from July 2002 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 22, 2026.
Data as of October 22, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.
This page answers the following questions about TLT
Key findings
Not AI-generatedThese key findings are generated by our proprietary relative intelligence engine, directly from the data on this page.
- What you're buyingTLT charges 0.15% a year; VGLT (Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF) tracks the same thing for 0.03%. Better options ↓
- Right nowTLT is 42.2% below its high, bear-market territory, while the S&P 500 sits 1.9% below a record. Over the past 6 months, TLT fell 3.9% while the S&P 500 rose 8.0%. At a glance ↓
- Fund or market?TLT fell 1.2% over the past 3 months, in line with the US bond market ETF AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF), which fell 0.5%. The S&P 500 rose 2.5%.
- Long termTLT turned $10,000 into $8,180 over the past decade, against $41,600 in the S&P 500. TLT's 10-year loss of 18.2% puts it behind 98% of the ETFs with at least $100 million in assets with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 316%. Growth of $10,000 ↓
- In a crashTLT fell less than the S&P 500 in five of six sell-offs, but the 2022 bear market broke the pattern: it fell 30.0%, more than the S&P 500's 24.5%. Crash tests ↓
- DiversificationAgainst the S&P 500, TLT has a correlation of 0.56 over 5 years, less closely than 82% of ETFs with at least $100 million in assets. Next to an index fund it is some diversification, but not a hedge. TLT cushions stocks less than it used to: its correlation with the S&P 500 rose to 0.56 over the past 5 years, from -0.28 in the 5 years before. Market capture ↓
- Better options
- Popular alternatives
- VGSH (Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF), BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) and GOVT (iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF) earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. VGSH returned 2.0% a year at 2.0% volatility, against a loss of 7.5% a year at 15.7%.
- Nearby categories and themes
- BIL (State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF, treasury bills) and VTIP (Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF, inflation-protected bonds) earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. BIL returned 3.7% a year at 0.3% volatility, against a loss of 7.5% a year at 15.7%.
- Whole market
- 406 of the 3,641 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF), VTV (Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF) and TBB (AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66).
How much would $10,000 in TLT have grown?
This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in TLT over the past 22 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of TLT over the same span and TLT's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.
Note: The chart covers the past 22 years rather than TLT's full 24 years, because most of its popular alternatives have not traded that long.
- $10,000 invested in TLT at the end of September 2004 would have grown to $18,151 by September 2026, less than the $102,174 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the six other investments on the chart ended ahead of TLT, and EP-PC finished highest, at $33,717.
Choose a period
From the end of September 2004 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 1,297 of the 1,489 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of TLT; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 1 line is a popular alternative, shown for context.
- SPY (S&P 500)$102,174+922% total · +11.1% a year
- EP-PC$33,717+237% total · +5.7% a year
- LQD$22,349+123% total · +3.7% a year
- TIP$19,977+99.8% total · +3.2% a year
- IEF$18,828+88.3% total · +2.9% a year
- AGG$18,581+85.8% total · +2.9% a year
- TLT$18,151+81.5% total · +2.7% a year
- SHY$15,098+51.0% total · +1.9% a year
From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 3,101 of the 3,630 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of TLT; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
- VGSH$10,923+9.2% total · +1.8% a year
- SHY$10,863+8.6% total · +1.7% a year
- TIP$9,908−0.9% total · −0.2% a year
- IEI$9,901−1.0% total · −0.2% a year
- SPTI$9,784−2.2% total · −0.4% a year
- AGG$9,694−3.1% total · −0.6% a year
- BND$9,657−3.4% total · −0.7% a year
- GOVT$9,466−5.3% total · −1.1% a year
- TLT$6,404−36.0% total · −8.5% a year
TLT at a glance
This section summarizes the key facts about the fund, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.
- TLT is still 42.2% below its all-time high.
- TLT's deepest decline since it began trading in 2002 was 48.4%, from August 2020 to October 2023. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.
- Over 23 full calendar years, TLT's best was 2011, when it returned 34.0%, and its worst was 2022, when it lost 31.2%. It lost money in seven of those years.
The fund
- Issuer
- IShares
- Began trading
- July 2002
- Expense ratio
- 0.15%per year
- Assets
- $47B
- Category
- Bonds
Returns
- Past 1 year
- −7.4%total return
- Past 3 years
- +9.9%+3.2% a year
- Past 5 years
- −32.4%−7.5% a year
- Past 10 years
- −18.2%−2.0% a year
- Best calendar year
- +34.0%2011
- Worst calendar year
- −31.2%2022
- Losing years
- 7 of 23full calendar years
Risk
- Volatility
- 15.7%typical yearly swing, 5 years
- Sharpe ratio
- -0.42return per unit of risk, 5 years
- Worst decline ever
- −48.4%Aug 2020 to Oct 2023
- From its all-time high
- −42.3%below the peak
TLT against the whole market
Where TLT ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.
How does TLT rank among all ETFs?
This section ranks TLT on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every ETF worth at least $100 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how TLT stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.
- On return for the risk taken (the Sharpe ratio), TLT ranks in the bottom 1% of the 1,563 ETFs with at least $100 million in assets.
Ranked against U.S.-listed ETFs with at least $100M in assets that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller ETFs and leveraged funds are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.
| Measure | TLT | Rank | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | −7.4% | 2,376 of 2,488 | bottom 6% |
| 3-year return | +9.9% | 1,902 of 1,950 | bottom 3% |
| 5-year return | −32.4% | 1,533 of 1,563 | bottom 3% |
| 10-year return | −18.2% | 943 of 958 | bottom 3% |
| Volatility, 5 years | 15.7% | 669 of 1,563 | top 43% |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | -0.42 | 1,554 of 1,563 | bottom 2% |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −48.4% | 779 of 951 | bottom 19% |
What has beaten TLT on both return and risk?
Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). TLT sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than TLT with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.
- 22 stocks and 384 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than TLT over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 11% of the 3,641 screened.
- Among those with at least half TLT's swings, LVHI has the best return for its risk: 16.9% a year at 11.1% volatility, 29% less than TLT's 15.7%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.48 against -0.42 for TLT.
- Among TLT's popular alternatives, VUSB, VGSH and SHY are in the region. VUSB earned 3.7% a year against a loss of 7.5% a year for TLT, at 0.9% volatility, 95% less than TLT's 15.7%.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to TLT; faint dots are 89 more of the 406 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,641 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.
- Popular alternatives
- Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
- The whole market
- Others in the green region
Is there a better investment than TLT?
Investments that beat TLT over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.
- Among TLT's popular alternatives, VGSH, BND and GOVT earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. VGSH returned 2.0% a year at 2.0% volatility, against a loss of 7.5% a year at 15.7%.
- VGLT tracks the same thing for 0.03% a year against TLT's 0.15%, and has kept pace over the past decade: about $120 less in fees on $10,000 over 10 years.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, BIL (treasury bills) and VTIP (inflation-protected bonds) earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. BIL returned 3.7% a year at 0.3% volatility, against a loss of 7.5% a year at 15.7%.
How this works
The table below lists investments that beat TLT over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes, and, for funds, the same exposure at a lower expense ratio. It checks TLT's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than TLT follows the table.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than TLT's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× TLT's volatility counts as better.
These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than TLT's.
| Investment | Why it is better | Past 5 years | Downside | Long run | Fit | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return?higher is better | Volatility?lower is calmer | Sharpe?return per unit of risk | Worst decline?past 10 years | 10Y returntotal | Corr. with TLT?lower diversifies more | Expenseper year | |||
| TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF · this page | −7.5% | 15.7% | -0.42 | −48.4% | −18.2% | 1.00 | 0.15% | ||
 SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF · S&P 500 | +12.5% | 17.2% | 0.78 | −33.7% | +316% | 0.56 | 0.09% | ||
| Popular alternativesbest 6 shownThe investments people most often weigh against TLT. 19 of 22 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
VGSHVanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF · Short-Term Treasuries | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +2.0% | 2.0% | 1.00 | −5.6% | +19.2% | 0.71 | 0.03% | |
 BNDVanguard Total Bond Market ETF · US Aggregate Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | −0.2% | 6.1% | 0.00 | −18.6% | +14.3% | 0.94 | 0.03% | |
 GOVTiShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF · Treasury Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | −0.6% | 6.0% | -0.07 | −19.1% | +8.2% | 0.90 | 0.05% | |
IEIiShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF · Intermediate-Term Treasuries | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +0.3% | 4.8% | 0.08 | −14.6% | +12.1% | 0.85 | 0.15% | |
TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF · Inflation-Protected Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | 0.0% | 6.2% | 0.03 | −14.5% | +24.6% | 0.79 | 0.18% | |
SPTLState Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF · Treasury Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periodsSame exposure, lower expense ratio | −6.4% | 14.4% | -0.39 | −46.2% | −13.2% | 1.00 | 0.03% | |
| Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 6 shownEverything else in Treasury Bonds and the categories next to it (Intermediate-Term Treasuries, Short-Term Treasuries, US Aggregate Bonds, Treasury Bills), plus TLT's specific themes. 36 of 38 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
 BILState Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF · Treasury Bills | On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +3.7% | 0.3% | 14.07 | −0.2% | +25.8% | 0.18 | 0.14% | |
 VTIPVanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF · Inflation-Protected Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +2.7% | 2.9% | 0.95 | −6.3% | +33.2% | 0.57 | 0.03% | |
TDTTNorthern Trust iBoxx 3-Year Target Duration TIPS ETF · Inflation-Protected Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +2.0% | 3.7% | 0.56 | −8.1% | +30.3% | 0.60 | 0.19% | |
IBTGiShares iBonds Dec 2026 Term Treasury ETF · Target Maturity Treasuries | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +1.3% | 3.2% | 0.42 | −13.6% | — | 0.69 | 0.07% | |
WIPSPDR FTSE International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF · Inflation-Protected Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | −0.6% | 11.4% | 0.00 | −28.8% | +10.8% | 0.75 | 0.50% | |
IVOLQuadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF · Inflation-Protected Bonds | Higher return, lower volatility | −5.9% | 13.0% | -0.40 | −32.3% | — | 0.24 | 1.02% | |
| The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 1,008 of 3,587 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
 VCSHVanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF · Short-Term Corporate Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +2.4% | 2.9% | 0.84 | −12.9% | +29.1% | 0.81 | 0.03% | |
FLOTiShares Floating Rate Bond ETF · Floating Rate Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +4.5% | 1.8% | 2.49 | −13.5% | +35.9% | 0.12 | 0.15% | |
 BNDXVanguard Total International Bond ETF · International Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +0.2% | 4.9% | 0.06 | −16.2% | +15.4% | 0.82 | 0.07% | |
NEARiShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF · Short-Term Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +3.9% | 1.4% | 2.74 | −9.6% | +32.1% | 0.62 | 0.25% | |
BLVVanguard Long-Term Bond ETF · Long-Term Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSame exposure, lower expense ratio | −4.4% | 12.9% | -0.29 | −38.3% | +3.8% | 0.98 | 0.03% | |
 EP-PCEl Paso Energy Capital Trust I PFD CV TR SECS · Preferred Stocks | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +5.2% | 8.9% | 0.62 | −25.4% | +38.1% | 0.40 | — | |
CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +8.2% | 13.3% | 0.66 | −23.8% | +104% | 0.47 | — | |
 VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +12.6% | 16.9% | 0.79 | −34.0% | +319% | 0.56 | 0.03% | |
What these numbers mean for TLT
- Annual return
- TLT lost 7.5% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.5% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $6,760. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
- Volatility
- TLT's volatility over the past 5 years was 15.7%, 91% of the S&P 500's 17.2%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, TLT's return lands within 15.7% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
- Sharpe ratio
- TLT's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was -0.42, against 0.78 for the S&P 500, so TLT earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
- Worst decline
- TLT's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 48.4%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 48.4% fall takes a 93.6% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
- Correlation
- Over the past 5 years, TLT's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.56 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against TLT instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a TLT holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 406 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than TLT with less volatility
Out of 3,641 tested over 5 years. The strongest 100 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.
| # | Investment | Found in | Annual return | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline | 10Y return | Corr. with TLT | Expense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BILState Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF · Treasury Bills | Same or nearby category | +3.7% | 0.3% | 14.07 | −0.2% | +25.8% | 0.18 | 0.14% |
| 2 |  BSVVanguard Short-Term Bond ETF · Short-Term Bonds | Whole market | +1.8% | 2.8% | 0.67 | −8.5% | +21.0% | 0.79 | 0.03% |
| 3 | VCSHVanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF · Short-Term Corporate Bonds | Whole market | +2.4% | 2.9% | 0.84 | −12.9% | +29.1% | 0.81 | 0.03% |
| 4 | FLOTiShares Floating Rate Bond ETF · Floating Rate Bonds | Whole market | +4.5% | 1.8% | 2.49 | −13.5% | +35.9% | 0.12 | 0.15% |
| 5 | BNDXVanguard Total International Bond ETF · International Bonds | Whole market | +0.2% | 4.9% | 0.06 | −16.2% | +15.4% | 0.82 | 0.07% |
| 6 | JAAAJanus Henderson AAA CLO ETF · AAA CLO Debt | Whole market | +5.1% | 1.7% | 2.98 | −2.6% | — | 0.24 | 0.20% |
| 7 |  MUBiShares National Muni Bond ETF · National Investment Grade | Whole market | +0.5% | 4.2% | 0.14 | −13.7% | +19.1% | 0.87 | 0.05% |
| 8 | SUBiShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF · Short-Term Municipal Bonds | Whole market | +1.5% | 1.7% | 0.91 | −9.4% | +16.2% | 0.72 | 0.07% |
| 9 |  IUSBiShares Core Universal USD Bond ETF · Total Bond Market | Whole market | +0.2% | 5.9% | 0.07 | −17.9% | +17.8% | 0.93 | 0.06% |
| 10 | LMBSFirst Trust Low Duration Opportunities ETF · Mortgage-Backed Securities | Whole market | +3.1% | 2.6% | 1.17 | −6.5% | +25.9% | 0.85 | 0.66% |
| 11 | FLRNState Street SPDR Bloomberg Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF · Floating Rate Bonds | Whole market | +4.5% | 1.7% | 2.58 | −14.7% | +35.7% | 0.17 | 0.15% |
| 12 | VTIPVanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF · Inflation-Protected Bonds | Same or nearby category | +2.7% | 2.9% | 0.95 | −6.3% | +33.2% | 0.57 | 0.03% |
| 13 | BLVVanguard Long-Term Bond ETF · Long-Term Bonds | Whole market | −4.4% | 12.9% | -0.29 | −38.3% | +3.8% | 0.98 | 0.03% |
| 14 | RAVINorthern Trust Ultra-Short Fixed Income ETF · Ultrashort Bonds | Whole market | +3.8% | 1.4% | 2.62 | −3.7% | +31.1% | 0.43 | 0.26% |
| 15 | SCHOSchwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF · Short-Term Treasuries | Same or nearby category | +2.0% | 2.1% | 1.00 | −5.7% | +19.3% | 0.70 | 0.03% |
| 16 | STIPiShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF · Inflation-Protected Bonds | Same or nearby category | +2.7% | 2.8% | 0.95 | −6.5% | +33.0% | 0.53 | 0.03% |
| 17 | LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Dividend Equity | Whole market | +16.9% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.45 | 0.40% |
| 18 | LDURPIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active Exchange-Traded Fund · Short-Term Bonds | Whole market | +2.4% | 2.1% | 1.16 | −8.7% | +26.7% | 0.65 | 0.54% |
| 19 |  VTVVanguard Morningstar Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +12.2% | 13.7% | 0.91 | −36.8% | +237% | 0.53 | 0.03% |
| 20 | BALTInnovator Defined Wealth Shield ETF · US Equity Buffer | Whole market | +6.2% | 3.3% | 1.84 | −4.9% | — | 0.56 | 0.69% |
| 21 | SMMUPIMCO Short Term Municipal Bond Active Exchange-Traded Fund · Short-Term Municipal Bonds | Whole market | +2.0% | 1.7% | 1.16 | −5.1% | +20.5% | 0.84 | 0.35% |
| 22 | VRIGInvesco Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF · Investment Grade Bonds | Whole market | +4.7% | 1.3% | 3.52 | −13.1% | +40.7% | 0.23 | 0.30% |
| 23 | SCHPSchwab US TIPS ETF · Inflation-Protected Bonds | Same or nearby category | +0.2% | 6.1% | 0.06 | −14.3% | +26.1% | 0.78 | 0.03% |
| 24 | GOVTiShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF · Treasury Bonds | Popular alternative | −0.6% | 6.0% | -0.07 | −19.1% | +8.2% | 0.90 | 0.05% |
| 25 |  VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF · Dividend Growth | Whole market | +10.4% | 14.1% | 0.77 | −31.7% | +258% | 0.58 | 0.04% |
| 26 | IEIiShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF · Intermediate-Term Treasuries | Popular alternative | +0.3% | 4.8% | 0.08 | −14.6% | +12.1% | 0.85 | 0.15% |
| 27 |  VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF · High Dividend Yield | Whole market | +11.6% | 13.8% | 0.87 | −35.2% | +209% | 0.50 | 0.04% |
| 28 |  SCHDSchwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +10.2% | 14.4% | 0.75 | −33.4% | +256% | 0.48 | 0.06% |
| 29 | FLRTPacer Aristotle Pacific Floating Rate High Income ETF · Bank Loans | Whole market | +6.0% | 2.3% | 2.55 | −20.9% | +58.7% | 0.37 | 0.60% |
| 30 | EP-PCEl Paso Energy Capital Trust I PFD CV TR SECS · Preferred Stocks | Whole market | +5.2% | 8.9% | 0.62 | −25.4% | +38.1% | 0.40 | — |
| 31 | SYSBiShares Systematic Bond ETF · Multisector Bonds | Whole market | +1.3% | 5.8% | 0.25 | −18.5% | +20.8% | 0.82 | 0.25% |
| 32 | FJANFT Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - January · US Equity Buffer | Whole market | +11.0% | 10.5% | 1.04 | −13.6% | — | 0.54 | 0.85% |
| 33 | POCTInnovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF · Moderate Buffer | Whole market | +9.9% | 8.0% | 1.22 | −18.8% | — | 0.49 | 0.79% |
| 34 | AGZiShares Agency Bond ETF · Government Bonds | Whole market | +1.1% | 3.6% | 0.33 | −11.1% | +18.9% | 0.87 | 0.15% |
| 35 |  JEPIJPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF · Covered Call Income | Whole market | +7.3% | 11.0% | 0.70 | −13.7% | — | 0.54 | 0.35% |
| 36 | DOCTFT Vest U.S. Equity Deep Buffer ETF - October · Deep Buffer | Whole market | +8.2% | 7.4% | 1.10 | −9.9% | — | 0.53 | 0.85% |
| 37 | CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Whole market | +8.2% | 13.3% | 0.66 | −23.8% | +104% | 0.47 | — |
| 38 | VYMIVanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF · International Dividend Equity | Whole market | +13.2% | 14.8% | 0.92 | −40.0% | +174% | 0.56 | 0.07% |
| 39 | GOVIInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF · Treasury Bonds | Popular alternative | −3.4% | 9.8% | -0.30 | −32.7% | −2.8% | 0.99 | 0.15% |
| 40 | HDViShares Core High Dividend ETF · High Dividend Yield | Whole market | +13.3% | 13.0% | 1.03 | −37.0% | +177% | 0.41 | 0.08% |
| 41 | HYGHiShares Interest Rate Hedged High Yield Bond ETF · High Yield Bonds | Whole market | +6.6% | 7.1% | 0.95 | −23.9% | +73.7% | 0.28 | 1.12% |
| 42 | DGRWWisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Fund · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +11.7% | 14.0% | 0.87 | −32.0% | +271% | 0.55 | 0.28% |
| 43 | USMViShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF · US Low-Volatility Equity | Whole market | +7.7% | 12.3% | 0.66 | −33.1% | +179% | 0.58 | 0.15% |
| 44 | SDYState Street SPDR S&P Dividend ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +8.1% | 14.0% | 0.63 | −36.7% | +163% | 0.56 | 0.35% |
| 45 | BUFRFT Vest Laddered Buffer ETF · Buffered Equity | Whole market | +9.8% | 10.5% | 0.95 | −13.7% | — | 0.56 | 0.10% |
| 46 | RWLInvesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Whole market | +13.7% | 14.4% | 0.97 | −36.1% | +287% | 0.53 | 0.39% |
| 47 | VNLAJanus Henderson Short Duration Income ETF · Ultrashort Bonds | Whole market | +4.1% | 1.1% | 3.80 | −4.5% | — | 0.53 | 0.25% |
| 48 | FDVVFidelity High Dividend ETF · High Dividend Yield | Whole market | +13.4% | 14.6% | 0.94 | −40.2% | +255% | 0.54 | 0.15% |
| 49 | FLTRVanEck IG Floating Rate ETF · Floating Rate Bonds | Whole market | +4.8% | 2.1% | 2.21 | −17.8% | +42.1% | 0.14 | 0.14% |
| 50 | AQNBAlgonquin Power & Utilities Corp. · Junior Subordinated Debt | Whole market | +5.6% | 11.6% | 0.53 | −42.7% | — | 0.22 | — |
| 51 | DBEFXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +12.9% | 13.8% | 0.95 | −32.5% | +204% | 0.53 | 0.35% |
| 52 | BKLNInvesco Senior Loan ETF · Bank Loans | Whole market | +5.3% | 4.5% | 1.19 | −24.1% | +50.5% | 0.27 | 0.67% |
| 53 | FDLFirst Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund · High Dividend Yield | Whole market | +14.6% | 14.5% | 1.02 | −41.4% | +207% | 0.43 | 0.43% |
| 54 | XLPState Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF · Consumer Staples | Whole market | +7.6% | 13.8% | 0.60 | −24.5% | +124% | 0.44 | 0.08% |
| 55 | DIVOAmplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF · Covered Call Income | Whole market | +10.9% | 11.9% | 0.94 | −30.0% | — | 0.46 | 0.56% |
| 56 | SRLNState Street Blackstone Senior Loan ETF · Bank Loans | Whole market | +4.6% | 3.9% | 1.17 | −22.3% | +53.9% | 0.28 | 0.70% |
| 57 | USTBVictoryShares Short-Term Bond ETF · Short-Term Bonds | Whole market | +3.6% | 2.1% | 1.77 | −5.3% | — | 0.74 | 0.34% |
| 58 | IGFiShares Global Infrastructure ETF · Infrastructure Equity | Whole market | +9.3% | 13.9% | 0.71 | −42.1% | +115% | 0.59 | 0.37% |
| 59 | FLDRFidelity Low Duration Bond Factor ETF · Short-Term Bonds | Whole market | +3.9% | 1.2% | 3.13 | −12.2% | — | 0.75 | 0.15% |
| 60 | SPHYState Street SPDR Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF · High Yield Bonds | Whole market | +3.8% | 7.2% | 0.56 | −22.0% | +55.1% | 0.64 | 0.05% |
| 61 | FTSLFirst Trust Senior Loan Fund · Bank Loans | Whole market | +5.0% | 3.4% | 1.49 | −22.7% | +52.0% | 0.26 | 0.70% |
| 62 | TBUXT. Rowe Price Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF · Ultrashort Bonds | Whole market | +4.2% | 1.1% | 3.88 | −1.8% | — | 0.56 | 0.17% |
| 63 | DBMFiMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF · Managed Futures | Whole market | +9.5% | 12.4% | 0.80 | −20.4% | — | -0.46 | 0.85% |
| 64 | GCOWPacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF · Global Equity | Whole market | +14.4% | 13.6% | 1.06 | −37.6% | +170% | 0.48 | 0.60% |
| 65 | FTCSFirst Trust Capital Strength ETF · US Quality Equity | Whole market | +6.5% | 13.3% | 0.54 | −31.9% | +191% | 0.50 | 0.53% |
| 66 | EMBiShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF · Emerging Market Bonds | Whole market | +1.5% | 9.8% | 0.20 | −28.7% | +26.8% | 0.79 | 0.39% |
| 67 | EFAViShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +7.7% | 11.9% | 0.69 | −27.6% | +100% | 0.66 | 0.20% |
| 68 | SPLVInvesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF · US Low-Volatility Equity | Whole market | +5.8% | 12.6% | 0.51 | −36.3% | +133% | 0.51 | 0.25% |
| 69 | IWXiShares Russell Top 200 Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +12.7% | 13.8% | 0.94 | −35.8% | +223% | 0.52 | 0.20% |
| 70 | FTLSFirst Trust Long/Short Equity ETF · Long-Short Equity | Whole market | +10.1% | 10.5% | 0.97 | −20.6% | +155% | 0.45 | 0.95% |
| 71 | PTLCPacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF · Tactical Equity | Whole market | +9.3% | 11.9% | 0.81 | −26.6% | +185% | 0.52 | 0.60% |
| 72 | AORiShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF · Balanced Allocation | Whole market | +6.4% | 10.7% | 0.64 | −23.0% | +117% | 0.75 | 0.20% |
| 73 | XYLDGlobal X - S&P 500 Covered Call ETF · Covered Call Income | Whole market | +7.4% | 11.2% | 0.70 | −33.4% | +127% | 0.45 | 0.60% |
| 74 | HDEFXtrackers MSCI EAFE High Dividend Yield Equity ETF · International Dividend Equity | Whole market | +12.9% | 14.2% | 0.93 | −36.4% | +135% | 0.58 | 0.09% |
| 75 | IXJiShares Global Healthcare ETF · Health Care Equity | Whole market | +6.5% | 14.8% | 0.50 | −27.4% | +164% | 0.52 | 0.38% |
| 76 | ACWViShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF · Global Equity | Whole market | +6.4% | 10.3% | 0.66 | −28.8% | +119% | 0.64 | 0.20% |
| 77 | BSCRInvesco BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF · Defined Maturity Corporate Bonds | Whole market | +1.8% | 4.1% | 0.46 | −17.3% | — | 0.75 | 0.10% |
| 78 | FTHIFirst Trust BuyWrite Income ETF · Covered Call Income | Whole market | +10.0% | 13.3% | 0.79 | −32.6% | +124% | 0.51 | 0.75% |
| 79 | ACIOAptus Collared Income Opportunity ETF · Hedged Equity | Whole market | +9.1% | 11.2% | 0.84 | −14.2% | — | 0.55 | 0.79% |
| 80 | PWVInvesco Large Cap Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +13.7% | 14.2% | 0.98 | −37.6% | +226% | 0.47 | 0.55% |
| 81 | FLUDFranklin Ultra Short Bond ETF · Ultrashort Bonds | Whole market | +3.9% | 1.4% | 2.77 | −1.7% | — | 0.37 | 0.15% |
| 82 | EMLCVanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF · Emerging Market Bonds | Whole market | +2.5% | 9.1% | 0.32 | −26.4% | +17.7% | 0.70 | 0.30% |
| 83 | FJUNFT Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - June · S&P 500 Buffer | Whole market | +10.4% | 10.6% | 0.99 | −13.3% | — | 0.59 | 0.85% |
| 84 | EEMViShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF · Emerging Markets Equity | Whole market | +5.0% | 12.9% | 0.45 | −31.6% | +71.9% | 0.63 | 0.25% |
| 85 | STOTState Street DoubleLine Short Duration Total Return Tactical ETF · Short-Term Bonds | Whole market | +2.9% | 1.7% | 1.69 | −6.1% | +25.9% | 0.73 | 0.45% |
| 86 | DHSWisdomTree U.S. High Dividend Fund · High Dividend Yield | Whole market | +12.4% | 13.9% | 0.91 | −37.4% | +159% | 0.43 | 0.38% |
| 87 | FLBLFranklin Senior Loan ETF · Bank Loans | Whole market | +5.2% | 3.9% | 1.35 | −19.5% | — | 0.32 | 0.45% |
| 88 | DDWMWisdomTree Dynamic International Equity Fund · International Dividend Equity | Whole market | +12.2% | 13.4% | 0.93 | −35.0% | +148% | 0.55 | 0.40% |
| 89 | NFRANorthern Trust STOXX Global Broad Infrastructure ETF · Infrastructure Equity | Whole market | +5.4% | 13.0% | 0.47 | −32.5% | +98.1% | 0.68 | 0.48% |
| 90 | JPIBJPMorgan International Bond Opportunities ETF · International Bonds | Whole market | +2.6% | 4.2% | 0.63 | −13.1% | — | 0.77 | 0.50% |
| 91 | RODMHartford Multifactor Developed Markets (ex-US) ETF · Developed International Equity | Whole market | +10.6% | 13.5% | 0.82 | −36.0% | +142% | 0.65 | 0.29% |
| 92 | QUSState Street SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF · US Multifactor Equity | Whole market | +11.1% | 14.2% | 0.81 | −33.8% | +276% | 0.61 | 0.15% |
| 93 | HCXYHercules Capital Inc · High Yield Bonds | Whole market | +4.3% | 13.1% | 0.39 | −34.8% | — | 0.45 | — |
| 94 | RLYState Street Multi-Asset Real Return ETF · Inflation Protection | Whole market | +10.0% | 13.3% | 0.79 | −34.2% | +128% | 0.34 | 0.50% |
| 95 | DBAInvesco DB Agriculture Fund · Agricultural Commodities | Whole market | +10.8% | 13.8% | 0.81 | −35.3% | +58.9% | -0.02 | 0.90% |
| 96 | FDLOFidelity Low Volatility Factor ETF · US Low-Volatility Equity | Whole market | +9.7% | 13.0% | 0.78 | −34.4% | +249% | 0.52 | 0.15% |
| 97 | FPEIFirst Trust Institutional Preferred Securities & Income ETF · Preferred Securities | Whole market | +3.4% | 6.0% | 0.58 | −27.5% | — | 0.51 | 0.85% |
| 98 | EDIVState Street SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +11.1% | 13.8% | 0.83 | −40.7% | +117% | 0.59 | 0.49% |
| 99 | LQDHiShares Interest Rate Hedged Corporate Bond ETF · Investment Grade Bonds | Whole market | +5.2% | 4.4% | 1.20 | −24.6% | +55.7% | 0.46 | 0.44% |
| 100 | FLMIFranklin Dynamic Municipal Bond ETF · Municipal Bonds | Whole market | +1.6% | 4.6% | 0.36 | −14.6% | — | 0.88 | 0.30% |
See everything that outperformed TLT →
TLT against its popular alternatives
The investments people most often weigh against TLT, compared period by period and year by year.
How do TLT's risk and return compare with its alternatives?
This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at TLT, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.
- 16 of the 18 popular alternatives, led by VUSB, VGSH and SHY, were both more rewarding and calmer than TLT over the past 5 years, earning a higher annual return with lower volatility.
- Over the past 5 years, TLT returned -7.5% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.5%, with lower volatility (15.7% against 17.2%).
Green points earned more than TLT with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.
All figures
| Investment | Annual return | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +12.5% | 17.2% |
| VUSB Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF | +3.7% | 0.9% |
| VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | +2.0% | 2.0% |
| SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | +1.9% | 2.0% |
| IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | +0.3% | 4.8% |
| SPTI State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF | +0.1% | 5.4% |
| SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | +0.1% | 5.4% |
| MBB iShares MBS ETF | +0.1% | 7.0% |
| TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF | 0.0% | 6.2% |
| AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | −0.1% | 6.2% |
| BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | −0.2% | 6.1% |
| GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | −0.6% | 6.0% |
| LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | −0.7% | 8.7% |
| IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | −1.4% | 7.7% |
| GOVI Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF | −3.4% | 9.8% |
| TLH iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF | −4.6% | 12.6% |
| SPTL State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF | −6.4% | 14.4% |
| TLT This pageiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | −7.5% | 15.7% |
| EDV Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF | −11.8% | 21.5% |
| ZROZ PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund | −13.4% | 23.8% |
Has TLT consistently beaten its popular alternatives?
This section compares TLT with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than TLT helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.
- 18 of the 22 popular alternatives, led by TIP, VGSH and SHY, outperformed TLT in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.
- TIP, VGSH and SHY outperformed TLT in every long-term period and in all but one short-term period, the most consistent record in the group.
- VUSB, VGSH and SHY earned more for the risk they took than TLT (a higher Sharpe ratio) and fell less in their worst decline of the past 10 years.
A green cell means the alternative earned more than TLT over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.
| Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Fund | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpehigher is better | Worst declinepast 10 years | Expense | Assets | Overlapsame sectors | ||
| TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (this page) | — | +0.4% | −1.2% | −3.9% | −3.2% | −7.4% | +9.9% | −32.4% | −18.2% | 15.7% | -0.42 | −48.4% | 0.15% | $47B | — |
| TIP QualifiediShares TIPS Bond ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.7% | −0.6% | −1.3% | +0.1% | −1.1% | +14.2% | +0.1% | +24.6% | 6.2% | 0.03 | −14.5% | 0.18% | $14B | — |
| VGSH QualifiedVanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.6% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.9% | +1.5% | +12.8% | +10.4% | +19.2% | 2.0% | 1.00 | −5.6% | 0.03% | $40B | — |
| SHY QualifiediShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.5% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.7% | +1.3% | +12.3% | +9.8% | +18.0% | 2.0% | 0.93 | −5.7% | 0.15% | $27B | — |
| AGG QualifiediShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.2% | −0.5% | −1.5% | −0.8% | −1.2% | +16.8% | −0.6% | +14.4% | 6.2% | 0.01 | −18.4% | 0.03% | $139B | — |
| BND QualifiedVanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.3% | −0.7% | −1.7% | −1.0% | −1.4% | +16.3% | −1.0% | +14.3% | 6.1% | 0.00 | −18.6% | 0.03% | $389B | — |
| SPTI QualifiedState Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.5% | −0.5% | −1.6% | −1.2% | −1.3% | +13.7% | +0.4% | +12.9% | 5.4% | 0.04 | −16.1% | 0.03% | $11B | — |
| IEI QualifiediShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.6% | −0.7% | −1.7% | −1.4% | −1.4% | +12.8% | +1.4% | +12.1% | 4.8% | 0.08 | −14.6% | 0.15% | $17B | — |
| SCHR QualifiedSchwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.5% | −0.5% | −1.6% | −1.2% | −1.3% | +13.6% | +0.5% | +11.7% | 5.4% | 0.04 | −16.1% | 0.03% | $14B | — |
| GOVT QualifiediShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.5% | −0.2% | −1.2% | −0.7% | −1.3% | +13.2% | −2.8% | +8.2% | 6.0% | -0.07 | −19.1% | 0.05% | $42B | — |
| GOVI QualifiedInvesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.3% | −0.6% | −2.6% | −2.1% | −4.2% | +12.0% | −15.7% | −2.8% | 9.8% | -0.30 | −32.7% | 0.15% | $1.2B | — |
| TLH QualifiediShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +0.3% | −0.6% | −2.9% | −2.4% | −5.0% | +14.7% | −21.1% | −10.0% | 12.6% | -0.32 | −41.1% | 0.15% | $12B | — |
| LQD QualifiediShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | −0.3% | −1.0% | −2.7% | −1.9% | −3.0% | +20.0% | −3.5% | +22.0% | 8.7% | -0.04 | −25.0% | 0.14% | $29B | — |
| VGIT QualifiedVanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | +0.6% | −0.9% | −2.0% | −1.6% | −1.7% | +13.2% | +0.2% | +11.4% | 5.4% | 0.03 | −16.0% | 0.03% | $48B | — |
| MBB QualifiediShares MBS ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | +0.3% | −1.2% | −2.4% | −1.2% | −1.1% | +19.4% | +0.3% | +10.5% | 7.0% | 0.04 | −17.7% | 0.04% | $35B | — |
| IEF QualifiediShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | +0.4% | −1.3% | −2.9% | −2.5% | −3.3% | +13.1% | −7.0% | +4.1% | 7.7% | -0.15 | −23.9% | 0.15% | $42B | — |
| SPTL QualifiedState Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | +0.3% | −0.8% | −3.3% | −2.6% | −6.1% | +12.5% | −28.1% | −13.2% | 14.4% | -0.39 | −46.2% | 0.03% | $11B | — |
| SCHQ QualifiedSchwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | 4/5 short2/3 long | +0.4% | −0.7% | −3.2% | −2.6% | −6.1% | +12.7% | −27.9% | — | 14.4% | -0.39 | −46.1% | 0.03% | $979M | — |
| VUSB QualifiedVanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF | 4/5 short2/3 long | +0.4% | +0.9% | +1.7% | +2.7% | +3.5% | +16.2% | +19.9% | — | 0.9% | 4.26 | −1.8% | 0.10% | $9.9B | — |
| VGLT BondsVanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 1/5 short3/3 long | +0.4% | −1.1% | −3.6% | −3.0% | −6.4% | +12.1% | −28.3% | −13.3% | 14.4% | -0.39 | −46.2% | 0.03% | $15B | — |
| EDV BondsVanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF | 0/5 short0/3 long | 0.0% | −1.3% | −5.4% | −4.7% | −12.1% | +6.1% | −46.6% | −32.3% | 21.5% | -0.48 | −60.4% | 0.05% | $4.0B | — |
| ZROZ BondsPIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund | 0/5 short0/3 long | +0.6% | −0.9% | −5.2% | −4.8% | −13.1% | +1.3% | −51.3% | −37.4% | 23.8% | -0.49 | −65.5% | 0.15% | $1.9B | — |
| GOVZ BondsiShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF | 0/5 short0/3 long | +0.7% | −0.9% | −5.1% | −4.7% | −13.1% | +1.3% | −51.0% | — | 23.8% | -0.48 | −62.5% | 0.15% | $390M | — |
How did TLT do year by year?
This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2003, along with where TLT ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with TLT and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.
- TLT finished ahead of the S&P 500 in six of its 23 full calendar years, and behind it in each of the last five.
- Among its popular alternatives, BND came out ahead of TLT most often, in 11 of the 18 years both traded.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, TLT finished in the top quarter in eight of 22 years and in the bottom quarter in eight. In 2025, it ranked 16 of 19.
Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of TLT; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places TLT among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.
| Investment | Years ahead of TLT | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT This pageiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | — | +4.2% | −8.1% | +2.8% | −31.2% | −4.6% | +18.1% | +14.1% | −1.6% | +9.2% | +1.2% | −1.8% | +27.3% | −13.4% | +2.6% | +34.0% | +9.0% | −21.8% | +33.9% | +10.3% | +0.7% | +8.6% | +8.7% | +1.6% |
| Rank among alternatives | Top quarter in 8 of 22 | 16 of 19 | 17 of 19 | 17 of 19 | 17 of 19 | 14 of 18 | 3 of 18 | 4 of 18 | 15 of 18 | 3 of 18 | 9 of 18 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 18 | 16 of 18 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 17 | 6 of 16 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 14 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 6 | — |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 16 of 23 | +17.7% | +24.9% | +26.2% | −18.2% | +28.7% | +18.3% | +31.2% | −4.6% | +21.7% | +12.0% | +1.2% | +13.5% | +32.3% | +16.0% | +1.9% | +15.1% | +26.4% | −36.8% | +5.1% | +15.9% | +4.8% | +10.7% | +28.2% |
| TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF | 10 of 22 | +6.8% | +1.7% | +3.8% | −12.3% | +5.7% | +10.8% | +8.4% | −1.4% | +2.9% | +4.7% | −1.8% | +3.6% | −8.5% | +6.4% | +13.3% | +6.1% | +8.9% | +0.1% | +12.0% | +0.3% | +2.5% | +8.3% | — |
| VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 8 of 16 | +5.1% | +4.0% | +4.3% | −3.8% | −0.6% | +3.1% | +3.5% | +1.6% | 0.0% | +1.1% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +1.5% | +2.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 11 of 23 | +5.0% | +3.9% | +4.2% | −3.9% | −0.7% | +3.0% | +3.4% | +1.5% | +0.3% | +0.8% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +1.5% | +2.3% | +0.4% | +6.6% | +7.3% | +3.9% | +1.5% | +0.7% | +2.2% |
| AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 12 of 22 | +7.2% | +1.3% | +5.7% | −13.0% | −1.8% | +7.5% | +8.5% | +0.1% | +3.6% | +2.4% | +0.5% | +6.0% | −2.0% | +3.8% | +7.7% | +6.3% | +3.0% | +7.9% | +6.6% | +3.9% | +2.3% | +3.8% | — |
| BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 11 of 18 | +7.1% | +1.4% | +5.7% | −13.1% | −1.9% | +7.7% | +8.8% | −0.1% | +3.6% | +2.5% | +0.6% | +5.8% | −2.1% | +3.9% | +7.9% | +6.2% | +3.6% | +6.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| SPTI State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF | 9 of 18 | +7.4% | +1.3% | +4.3% | −10.7% | −2.6% | +7.7% | +6.0% | +2.3% | +1.0% | +0.3% | +1.6% | +2.5% | −1.2% | +1.5% | +6.6% | +4.9% | −1.5% | +11.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
| IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 9 of 18 | +7.0% | +1.8% | +4.4% | −9.5% | −2.5% | +6.9% | +5.7% | +1.4% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.6% | +3.2% | −1.8% | +1.8% | +8.3% | +6.3% | −1.7% | +12.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | 8 of 15 | +7.4% | +1.4% | +4.2% | −10.5% | −2.6% | +7.7% | +6.2% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.0% | +1.6% | +4.4% | −2.7% | +2.1% | +10.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | 7 of 13 | +3.8% | +3.0% | +4.2% | −13.4% | −1.1% | +7.3% | +7.3% | +0.3% | +2.2% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +4.7% | −2.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOVI Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF | 9 of 18 | +5.8% | −2.9% | +3.3% | −20.0% | −3.8% | +12.6% | +10.0% | −0.3% | +5.0% | +0.6% | +0.2% | +15.0% | −7.9% | +2.8% | +20.0% | +8.9% | −11.1% | +21.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TLH iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 10 of 18 | +6.5% | −4.2% | +4.0% | −25.2% | −5.4% | +13.8% | +10.1% | +0.4% | +4.2% | +0.9% | +1.4% | +14.3% | −8.3% | +3.7% | +21.7% | +9.7% | −9.1% | +20.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
| LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | 13 of 23 | +7.9% | +0.9% | +9.4% | −17.9% | −1.8% | +11.0% | +17.4% | −3.8% | +7.0% | +6.2% | −1.3% | +8.2% | −2.0% | +10.6% | +9.8% | +9.3% | +8.4% | +2.4% | +3.7% | +4.2% | +1.1% | +5.7% | +7.3% |
| MBB iShares MBS ETF | 9 of 18 | +8.4% | +1.3% | +5.0% | −11.7% | −1.6% | +4.1% | +6.2% | +0.8% | +2.5% | +1.3% | +1.1% | +6.4% | −1.9% | +2.0% | +5.9% | +5.6% | +4.7% | +7.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 12 of 23 | +8.0% | −0.6% | +3.6% | −15.2% | −3.3% | +10.0% | +8.0% | +1.0% | +2.6% | +1.0% | +1.5% | +9.1% | −6.1% | +3.7% | +15.7% | +9.3% | −6.6% | +17.9% | +10.4% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +4.1% | +3.0% |
| SPTL State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF | 6 of 18 | +5.3% | −6.2% | +3.3% | −29.4% | −5.0% | +18.1% | +13.8% | −1.6% | +9.0% | +0.9% | −1.6% | +25.3% | −12.2% | +2.9% | +30.3% | +8.7% | −13.1% | +24.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VUSB Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF | 4 of 4 | +5.2% | +5.7% | +5.5% | −0.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EDV Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF | 7 of 18 | +0.6% | −12.8% | +1.4% | −39.1% | −6.2% | +23.6% | +18.7% | −3.4% | +13.9% | +1.6% | −4.8% | +44.6% | −19.8% | +2.4% | +55.9% | +9.8% | −35.8% | +54.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| ZROZ PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund | 7 of 16 | −1.8% | −16.2% | +1.2% | −41.3% | −5.2% | +24.6% | +21.2% | −4.6% | +14.8% | +2.1% | −6.1% | +48.8% | −20.9% | +0.9% | +60.4% | +9.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Risk and diversification
How TLT has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.
What were TLT's worst declines?
A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents TLT's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 2002, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.
- In all five of TLT's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: TLT fell 48.4% from August 2020 to October 2023, while the S&P 500 rose 35.6%.
- The slowest recovery came after TLT fell 17.9% from July to December 2016; it did not regain that peak until July 2019, three years later.
Green means TLT fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.
| During | TLT fell | S&P 500, same dates | Peak | Low | Time to the low | Back at the peak | Time to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 bear market | −48.4% | +35.6% | Aug 2020 | Oct 2023 | 3.2 years | Not yet | — |
| 2008 financial crisis | −26.6% | +6.9% | Dec 2008 | Jun 2009 | 6 months | Aug 2011 | 2.2 years |
| No named crash | −20.5% | +25.6% | Jul 2012 | Aug 2013 | 13 months | Dec 2014 | 16 months |
| No named crash | −17.9% | +6.8% | Jul 2016 | Dec 2016 | 5 months | Jul 2019 | 2.6 years |
| No named crash | −15.8% | +6.2% | Jan 2015 | Jun 2015 | 5 months | Jun 2016 | 12 months |
How did TLT do in stock market crashes?
This section measures how far TLT, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.
Note: TLT began trading on July 30, 2002, so its row reads "Not yet trading" for the dot-com bust. The older alternatives and the S&P 500 show how those crashes played out.
- TLT fell less than the S&P 500 in seven of the nine crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when TLT fell 16.2% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.
- Among its popular alternatives, TIP held up best, falling less than TLT in eight of the nine crashes they both traded through.
Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than TLT.
| Investment | Held up better | 2023 regional bank crisisMar 2023 | 2022 bear marketJan 2022 | Covid crashFeb 2020 | Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018 | February 2018 volatility shockFeb 2018 | 2015 China and oil sell-offAug 2015 | 2011 euro debt crisisJul 2011 | 2010 flash crashMay 2010 | 2008 financial crisisOct 2007 | Dot-com bustMar 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT This pageiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | — | 0.0% | −30.0% | −15.7% | −4.3% | −2.3% | −5.8% | −5.0% | −1.3% | −16.2% | Not yet trading |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1 of 9 | −3.4% | −24.5% | −33.7% | −19.3% | −6.5% | −12.8% | −17.9% | −1.5% | −55.2% | −47.5% |
| TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF | 8 of 9 | 0.0% | −14.3% | −11.2% | −2.0% | −1.1% | −2.5% | −3.8% | −0.2% | −14.4% | — |
| VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 7 of 8 | 0.0% | −4.6% | −0.5% | −0.2% | −0.1% | −0.7% | −0.3% | 0.0% | — | — |
| SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 8 of 9 | 0.0% | −4.7% | −0.7% | −0.2% | −0.1% | −0.7% | −0.2% | −0.1% | −2.2% | — |
| AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 8 of 9 | 0.0% | −14.5% | −9.6% | −1.1% | −0.8% | −1.5% | −1.3% | −0.4% | −12.8% | — |
| BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 8 of 9 | 0.0% | −14.6% | −8.7% | −1.1% | −0.9% | −1.5% | −1.1% | −0.2% | −9.3% | — |
| SPTI State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF | 8 of 9 | 0.0% | −11.9% | −2.1% | −0.8% | −0.4% | −1.6% | −0.7% | −0.2% | −7.6% | — |
| IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 8 of 9 | 0.0% | −10.9% | −1.8% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −2.0% | −0.8% | 0.0% | −5.3% | — |
| SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | 6 of 7 | 0.0% | −11.9% | −2.2% | −0.8% | −0.6% | −2.1% | −1.1% | — | — | — |
| GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | 5 of 6 | 0.0% | −13.0% | −4.6% | −0.9% | −0.3% | −2.1% | — | — | — | — |
| GOVI Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF | 7 of 8 | 0.0% | −19.8% | −10.2% | −2.3% | −1.3% | −3.5% | −3.3% | −0.5% | — | — |
| TLH iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 8 of 9 | 0.0% | −25.5% | −11.8% | −2.0% | −1.4% | −3.4% | −3.0% | −0.6% | −8.9% | — |
| LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | 6 of 9 | −0.1% | −21.3% | −21.8% | −2.6% | −1.2% | −2.7% | −3.2% | 0.0% | −21.5% | — |
| MBB iShares MBS ETF | 8 of 9 | 0.0% | −14.4% | −4.3% | −1.1% | −0.6% | −1.0% | −0.8% | 0.0% | −3.8% | — |
| IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 8 of 9 | 0.0% | −16.1% | −4.7% | −1.2% | −0.8% | −2.9% | −1.9% | −0.3% | −6.2% | — |
| SPTL State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF | 5 of 9 | 0.0% | −28.6% | −15.0% | −4.2% | −2.5% | −5.5% | −4.3% | −0.3% | −11.5% | — |
| VUSB Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF | 1 of 2 | 0.0% | −1.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EDV Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF | 0 of 8 | −0.1% | −37.8% | −18.5% | −6.6% | −3.5% | −9.2% | −8.5% | −0.8% | — | — |
| ZROZ PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund | 0 of 8 | −0.4% | −39.3% | −21.2% | −7.8% | −3.8% | −9.8% | −9.1% | −3.2% | — | — |
How closely does TLT move with the S&P 500?
Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares TLT with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.
- Over the past 10 years, TLT captured 6% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 32% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 0.16. Its share of the market's losses was larger than its share of the gains.
- 13 of the 15 popular alternatives had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than TLT's 0.19, led by IEI, SPTI and SCHR.
- VGSH took just -1% of the S&P 500's losses, against 32% for TLT, while still keeping 5% of its gains.
Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than TLT's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.
| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Capture ratio | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT This pageiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 6% | 32% | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 6% | 6% | 1.05 | 0.04 |
| SPTI State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF | 7% | 7% | 1.01 | 0.05 |
| SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | 6% | 7% | 0.92 | 0.05 |
| TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF | 15% | 17% | 0.87 | 0.18 |
| AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 12% | 17% | 0.71 | 0.14 |
| GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | 6% | 8% | 0.71 | 0.06 |
| BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 13% | 19% | 0.69 | 0.15 |
| LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | 25% | 39% | 0.64 | 0.33 |
| MBB iShares MBS ETF | 13% | 21% | 0.62 | 0.14 |
| IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 7% | 14% | 0.51 | 0.08 |
| GOVI Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF | 6% | 18% | 0.34 | 0.10 |
| TLH iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 8% | 27% | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| SPTL State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF | 7% | 28% | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| EDV Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF | 5% | 46% | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| ZROZ PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund | 4% | 50% | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 5% | -1% | — | 0.01 |
| SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 5% | -1% | — | 0.01 |
What diversifies TLT?
Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with TLT's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing TLT with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.
- Moving a fifth of the money in TLT into POCT would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 15% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (-8.5% for TLT alone, -4.9% for the mix).
- FIX made money in seven of the seven calendar years in which TLT lost money.
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and POCT have moved largely independently of TLT over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.49 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which TLT lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% TLT and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.
ETFs
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2024 | 2022 | 2021 | 2018 | 2015 | 2013 | 2009 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (this page) | 1.00 | −32.4% | -0.42 | −8.1% | −31.2% | −4.6% | −1.6% | −1.8% | −13.4% | −21.8% | 14.6% | −8.5% |
| LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.45 | +119% | 1.48 | +15.9% | +3.8% | +17.8% | −5.2% | — | — | — | 12.7% | −3.8% |
| DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.18 | +225% | 1.34 | +29.8% | +6.0% | +18.0% | −19.8% | +7.7% | +41.3% | +2.0% | 12.4% | −2.0% |
| POCT Broad MarketInnovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF | 0.49 | +60.2% | 1.22 | +9.6% | −1.3% | +9.4% | — | — | — | — | 12.4% | −4.9% |
| GCOW InternationalPacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF | 0.48 | +95.7% | 1.06 | +3.5% | +5.5% | +14.6% | −8.0% | — | — | — | 13.4% | −4.3% |
| EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.43 | +103% | 1.06 | +33.4% | +10.4% | +23.1% | −8.7% | −25.3% | +16.6% | — | 13.2% | −4.0% |
| PVAL Broad MarketPutnam Focused Large Cap Value ETF | 0.48 | +109% | 1.06 | +19.3% | −2.6% | — | — | — | — | — | 13.4% | −3.7% |
| FTLS Broad MarketFirst Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | 0.45 | +61.5% | 0.97 | +18.8% | −5.6% | +19.7% | −4.8% | +4.7% | — | — | 12.6% | −4.8% |
| FFLC Broad MarketFidelity Fundamental Large Cap Core ETF | 0.42 | +105% | 0.94 | +27.9% | 0.0% | +24.5% | — | — | — | — | 13.3% | −3.7% |
Stocks
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2024 | 2022 | 2021 | 2018 | 2015 | 2013 | 2009 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (this page) | 1.00 | −32.4% | -0.42 | −8.1% | −31.2% | −4.6% | −1.6% | −1.8% | −13.4% | −21.8% | 14.6% | −8.5% |
| CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc. | 0.24 | +471% | 1.54 | +19.0% | +54.1% | −0.4% | −24.5% | +12.6% | +66.0% | −4.4% | 13.9% | −0.1% |
| CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc. | 0.07 | +2,780% | 1.43 | +215% | +1.3% | +37.9% | −16.3% | −6.0% | +27.6% | +105% | 17.1% | +11.2% |
| MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation | 0.12 | +397% | 1.41 | +23.7% | +51.8% | +44.2% | −28.4% | −4.5% | +67.7% | +62.9% | 13.3% | −0.5% |
| FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.19 | +1,452% | 1.41 | +107% | +17.0% | +89.0% | +0.8% | +67.7% | +61.7% | +17.8% | 16.0% | +7.5% |
| MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 0.03 | +660% | 1.39 | −4.0% | +86.6% | +61.0% | −8.2% | +17.4% | +48.6% | — | 13.6% | +1.9% |
Common questions
What was TLT's worst drawdown?
TLT's deepest decline since it began trading in 2002 was 48.4%, from August 2020 to October 2023. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.
What were TLT's best and worst years?
Over 23 full calendar years, TLT's best year was 2011, when it returned 34.0%. Its worst was 2022, with a return of -31.2%.
Is there a better investment than TLT?
Among TLT's popular alternatives, VGSH, BND and GOVT earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. VGSH returned 2.0% a year at 2.0% volatility, against a loss of 7.5% a year at 15.7%. VGLT tracks the same thing for 0.03% a year against TLT's 0.15%, and has kept pace over the past decade: about $120 less in fees on $10,000 over 10 years.
Is TLT more volatile than the S&P 500?
No. TLT's volatility over the past 5 years was 15.7%, 91% of the S&P 500's 17.2%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, TLT's return lands within 15.7% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.
What is TLT's Sharpe ratio?
TLT's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was -0.42, against 0.78 for the S&P 500, so TLT earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.
How correlated is TLT with the S&P 500?
Over the past 5 years, TLT's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.56 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against TLT instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a TLT holding.
What are the best alternatives to TLT?
Of the 22 popular alternatives we compared, 18 outperformed TLT in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: TIP, VGSH and SHY.
Did TLT outperform the S&P 500?
TLT finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in six of 23 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +4.2%, against +17.7% for the index.
How did TLT do in stock market crashes?
TLT fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in seven of the nine major crashes it has traded through, and further in one. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when TLT fell 16.2% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.
What diversifies TLT?
These had a low correlation with TLT over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.45), DXJ (correlation 0.18) and POCT (correlation 0.49); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.24), CLS (correlation 0.07) and MCK (correlation 0.12). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.
How we measure
- Short-term periods are 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y; long-term periods are 3Y, 5Y, 10Y. An investment outperformed in a period when its total return, with dividends reinvested, was higher than TLT's. Returns within 0.5 points or 3% of TLT's, whichever is larger, count as a tie.
- "Qualified" means outperforming in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period.
- Popular alternatives are the funds and stocks most often compared with this one. We include only those that trade today, are not leveraged or inverse, and hold at least $200 million.
- Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over 5 years, a measure of how much the price typically swings in a year. The Sharpe ratio is the return above cash for each unit of that volatility.
- A decline, or drawdown, runs from a peak to the lowest close before the next high. The worst decline ever uses all the price history we have; comparisons between funds use the past 10 years so that younger funds are judged on the same stretch.
- Sector overlap is the share of assets two funds hold in the same sectors. Correlation and the mixed-portfolio figures use monthly returns.
- Upside and downside capture follow Morningstar's definition: the compound monthly return in the months the S&P 500 rose (or fell), divided by the S&P 500's compound return in those months. Beta measures how strongly monthly returns have moved with the S&P 500. All three use the same window for every investment.
- Figures are computed from daily adjusted prices and update after each trading day. Past performance does not predict future results.
More research
Popular alternatives to TLT
AGGiShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF- BNDVanguard Total Bond Market ETF
- GOVTiShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF
VGITVanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
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