Benchmark research · Costco
ETFs and Stocks That Consistently Outperformed COST (Costco)
Any investment can look great over a single hand-picked timeframe. To find what truly kept ahead of COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation), we screened COST against the entire market of over 10,000 stocks and ETFs across 8 different time windows from 1 month to 10 years, including reinvested dividends. A contender had to come out ahead in both the short term and the long term to make the list. Data as of October 22, 2026.
Compare the entire market against COST live →Key findings
- How hard it was to top COST: Outperforming Costco across both short- and long-term periods was uncommon among the over 10,000 stocks and ETFs screened. Of 958 eligible ETFs, 20, or 2.1%, met the consistency rule, and none were all-weather. Of 1,501 eligible stocks, 144, or 9.6%, were consistent, including 21 all-weather stocks.
- Who came out ahead across the three groups:
- Popular alternatives: WMT fell short with 2 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term periods ahead. TGT, DG, and BJ each topped COST in 4 of 5 short-term periods but none of the long-term periods. SPY also fell short, with 2 of 5 short-term and none of the long-term periods ahead. No same-index clones were excluded.
- Top ETFs: Technology led the ETF results, with 7 of the top ETFs in that category. Semiconductor funds SMH, SOXX, and FTXL each outperformed in all 3 long-term periods and 3 of 5 short-term periods; IYW also had that record. In total, 20 ETFs met the consistency rule.
- Top stocks: 144 stocks met the consistency rule, and 21 were all-weather. Standouts included energy companies MPC and PBR-A, consumer discretionary company ANF, and healthcare company LLY. Each outperformed in all 3 long-term periods and all 5 short-term periods.
- The risk trade-off: The top ETFs and stocks generally had larger price swings than COST. Over 5 years, the top ETFs had median volatility of 30.6% versus 22.9% for COST, while the top stocks had median volatility of 44.2%. Only 4 of the top 15 ETFs had a higher Sharpe ratio than COST, compared with 6 of the top 10 stocks, so more of the stocks delivered higher risk-adjusted returns.
How popular alternatives compare
Well-known funds and stocks investors often compare against COST, sorted by long-term periods outperformed, then short-term.
| Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpe ratiohigher is better | ||
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation (benchmark) | — | +13.2% | +10.0% | +1.8% | +19.7% | +8.4% | +91.8% | +123% | +692% | 22.9% | 0.82 |
| WMT Fell shortWalmart Inc. | 2/5 short2/3 long | +10.0% | +11.0% | −6.4% | +8.1% | +14.0% | +133% | +161% | +521% | 22.6%1.0× COST | 0.97 |
| TGT Fell shortTarget Corporation | 4/5 short0/3 long | −0.6% | +15.5% | +23.1% | +61.7% | +75.0% | +64.3% | −27.8% | +213% | 36.1%1.6× COST | 0.00 |
| DG Fell shortDollar General Corporation | 4/5 short0/3 long | +14.0% | +16.3% | +14.1% | +3.6% | +36.9% | +27.1% | −31.1% | +134% | 37.1%1.6× COST | -0.01 |
| BJ Fell shortBJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | 4/5 short0/3 long | +17.2% | +16.1% | +11.8% | +16.0% | +13.5% | +55.3% | +73.9% | — | 32.5%1.4× COST | 0.51 |
| SPY Fell shortState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 2/5 short0/3 long | −1.2% | +2.5% | +8.0% | +12.7% | +15.6% | +88.4% | +80.3% | +316% | 17.2%0.7× COST | 0.78 |
| KR Fell shortThe Kroger Co. | 2/5 short0/3 long | +15.9% | +18.8% | +0.9% | +9.7% | +1.2% | +67.5% | +88.0% | +168% | 27.4%1.2× COST | 0.60 |
| VDC Fell shortVanguard Consumer Staples ETF | 2/5 short0/3 long | +8.8% | +7.4% | +8.8% | +17.4% | +14.3% | +47.4% | +48.0% | +131% | 13.6%0.6× COST | 0.65 |
| XLP Fell shortState Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF | 2/5 short0/3 long | +8.8% | +7.3% | +11.1% | +18.1% | +16.0% | +45.4% | +44.1% | +124% | 13.8%0.6× COST | 0.60 |
| PEJ Fell shortInvesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF | 2/5 short0/3 long | +6.0% | +1.4% | +7.4% | +8.1% | +11.7% | +87.8% | +31.6% | +90.0% | 22.7%1.0× COST | 0.36 |
| RTH Fell shortVanEck Retail ETF | 1/5 short0/3 long | +6.3% | +6.0% | +1.7% | +9.3% | +10.5% | +70.1% | +54.2% | +290% | 17.0%0.7× COST | 0.60 |
| XRT Fell shortState Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF | 1/5 short0/3 long | +6.5% | +0.6% | +2.7% | +4.5% | +5.9% | +57.9% | +2.0% | +139% | 26.8%1.2× COST | 0.15 |
| XLY Fell shortState Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0/5 short0/3 long | +2.4% | +1.1% | −2.9% | −2.2% | −2.3% | +55.3% | +24.5% | +218% | 24.1%1.1× COST | 0.30 |
| FND Fell shortFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −1.9% | −11.1% | −6.8% | −23.5% | −32.4% | −41.4% | −64.6% | — | 47.1%2.1× COST | -0.21 |
ETFs that consistently outperformed COST
Top 15 by long-term periods outperformed, then short-term, then by 10Y return. Green cells outperformed COST in that period. Excludes leveraged and inverse funds, ETFs under $100M in assets, stocks under $2.0B in market cap, and anything without 10 years of history.
| # | Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Fund | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpe ratiohigher is better | Expense | Assets | |||
| — | COST Costco Wholesale Corporation (benchmark) | — | +13.2% | +10.0% | +1.8% | +19.7% | +8.4% | +91.8% | +123% | +692% | 22.9% | 0.82 | ||
| 1 | SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | −13.8% | −10.8% | +9.8% | +40.2% | +55.0% | +272% | +304% | +1,570% | 37.0%1.6× COST | 0.94 | 0.35% | $66B |
| 2 | SOXX Broad MarketiShares Semiconductor ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | −17.0% | −14.3% | +10.3% | +51.9% | +68.0% | +219% | +221% | +1,297% | 39.0%1.7× COST | 0.80 | 0.33% | $39B |
| 3 | FTXL TechnologyFirst Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | −16.0% | −12.2% | +9.3% | +56.8% | +81.8% | +234% | +220% | +1,019% | 39.0%1.7× COST | 0.79 | 0.60% | $1.2B |
| 4 | IYW Broad MarketiShares U.S. Technology ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | −6.4% | +2.4% | +16.3% | +24.7% | +26.1% | +138% | +135% | +773% | 26.7%1.2× COST | 0.78 | 0.37% | $24B |
| 5 | VGT TechnologyVanguard Information Technology ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | −6.1% | +2.7% | +15.4% | +25.9% | +26.7% | +135% | +130% | +753% | 26.1%1.1× COST | 0.77 | 0.09% | $178B |
| 6 | XLK TechnologyState Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | −7.1% | +1.3% | +15.6% | +26.8% | +28.4% | +126% | +139% | +741% | 26.1%1.1× COST | 0.80 | 0.08% | $125B |
| 7 | FTEC TechnologyFidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF | 3/5 short3/3 long | −6.1% | +2.6% | +15.4% | +25.9% | +26.9% | +136% | +132% | +737% | 26.1%1.1× COST | 0.78 | 0.08% | $22B |
| 8 | BNO CommoditiesUnited States Brent Oil Fund LP | 5/5 short2/3 long | +19.0% | +34.0% | +36.4% | +144% | +139% | +118% | +205% | +359% | 37.1%1.6× COST | 0.79 | 1.15% | $768M |
| 9 | UGA CommoditiesUnited States Gasoline Fund, LP | 4/5 short2/3 long | −0.6% | +16.0% | +32.8% | +132% | +125% | +117% | +227% | +401% | 35.1%1.5× COST | 0.85 | 1.08% | $167M |
| 10 | CRAK EnergyVanEck Oil Refiners ETF | 4/5 short2/3 long | +0.5% | +15.8% | +36.4% | +69.7% | +74.3% | +118% | +143% | +325% | 20.9%0.9× COST | 0.96 | 0.61% | $810M |
| 11 | DBE AlternativesInvesco DB Energy Fund | 4/5 short2/3 long | +11.4% | +26.4% | +33.5% | +130% | +123% | +98.0% | +149% | +268% | 30.6%1.3× COST | 0.75 | 0.79% | $132M |
| 12 | USO CommoditiesUnited States Oil Fund, LP | 4/5 short2/3 long | +12.8% | +23.4% | +25.6% | +136% | +130% | +106% | +180% | +77.7% | 37.7%1.6× COST | 0.74 | 0.86% | $1.9B |
| 13 | XSD TechnologyState Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF | 3/5 short2/3 long | −15.4% | −14.6% | +2.6% | +35.0% | +36.6% | +158% | +121% | +805% | 40.9%1.8× COST | 0.59 | 0.35% | $2.7B |
| 14 | IXN InternationaliShares Global Tech ETF | 3/5 short2/3 long | −8.8% | −0.5% | +14.3% | +28.7% | +31.1% | +140% | +137% | +693% | 26.2%1.1× COST | 0.79 | 0.37% | $9.1B |
| 15 | EWT TechnologyiShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | 3/5 short2/3 long | −9.7% | +2.3% | +20.7% | +60.6% | +67.3% | +187% | +147% | +448% | 24.3%1.1× COST | 0.87 | 0.59% | $12B |
Stocks that consistently outperformed COST
Top 10 by long-term periods outperformed, then short-term, then by 10Y return. Individual stocks swing far more than funds; check the volatility column.
| # | Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Company | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpe ratiohigher is better | Market cap | |||
| — | COST Costco Wholesale Corporation (benchmark) | — | +13.2% | +10.0% | +1.8% | +19.7% | +8.4% | +91.8% | +123% | +692% | 22.9% | 0.82 | |
| 1 | MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +17.9% | +45.8% | +108% | +181% | +148% | +226% | +660% | +1,314% | 33.4%1.5× COST | 1.39 | $129B |
| 2 | ANF Apparel - RetailAbercrombie & Fitch Co. | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +18.6% | +68.2% | +74.7% | +30.6% | +136% | +169% | +323% | +1,132% | 62.9%2.7× COST | 0.77 | $6.9B |
| 3 | PBR-A Oil & Gas IntegratedPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +20.9% | +41.0% | +27.3% | +115% | +127% | +146% | +751% | +733% | 37.4%1.6× COST | 1.34 | $155B |
| 4 | NTRA Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchNatera, Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +2.7% | +51.9% | +93.2% | +75.4% | +113% | +901% | +249% | +3,934% | 57.6%2.5× COST | 0.73 | $58B |
| 5 | FTNT Software - InfrastructureFortinet, Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −0.7% | +11.6% | +98.6% | +122% | +104% | +208% | +158% | +2,668% | 44.8%2.0× COST | 0.65 | $127B |
| 6 | BWLP Marine ShippingBW LPG Limited | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +1.2% | +20.7% | +46.1% | +116% | +129% | +232% | +966% | +2,648% | 50.9%2.2× COST | 1.19 | $3.8B |
| 7 | LLY Drug Manufacturers - GeneralEli Lilly and Company | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +11.7% | +12.5% | +42.3% | +21.5% | +61.9% | +131% | +461% | +1,870% | 32.8%1.4× COST | 1.22 | $1.2T |
| 8 | LPG Oil & Gas MidstreamDorian LPG Ltd. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −3.9% | +19.7% | +49.2% | +123% | +107% | +123% | +817% | +1,827% | 43.6%1.9× COST | 1.24 | $2.2B |
| 9 | COKE Beverages - Non-AlcoholicCoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +12.5% | +16.7% | +15.1% | +44.1% | +67.4% | +257% | +468% | +1,564% | 38.0%1.7× COST | 1.11 | $14B |
| 10 | CORT Medical - PharmaceuticalsCorcept Therapeutics Incorporated | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −8.5% | +18.3% | +131% | +181% | +46.0% | +294% | +474% | +1,434% | 76.0%3.3× COST | 0.80 | $12B |
What stands out
The ETF leaders were concentrated in technology, especially semiconductor funds such as SMH, SOXX, and FTXL. Their record extended across all 3 long-term periods, rather than relying only on recent gains. The stock leaders were more varied, spanning energy, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and other sectors. MPC, ANF, PBR-A, and LLY topped COST in every short- and long-term period shown, though their results came with company-specific risks.
The risk figures show that the higher returns often came with a bumpier ride. The top ETFs had moderately higher median volatility than COST, while the top stocks had roughly double or more the benchmark's volatility. Their median Sharpe ratios point to a difference: the top ETF group was slightly below COST, while the top stock group was higher. Still, only a minority of ETFs and about half of the top stocks had higher Sharpe ratios, so the reward for taking more risk was not consistent.
Methodology
- Short-term periods: 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y. Long-term periods: 3Y, 5Y, 10Y. An investment outperformed a period when its total return, with dividends reinvested, was higher than COST's. Returns within 0.5 points or 3% of COST's (whichever is larger) count as a tie and are shown in gray.
- Consistent means outperforming in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods, so a recent hot streak alone is not enough. All-weather means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period. Rankings use long-term periods outperformed, then short-term, then the 10Y return.
- Excludes leveraged and inverse funds, ETFs under $100M in assets, stocks under $2.0B in market cap, and anything without 10 years of history.
- Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over 5 years. The Sharpe ratio is return above cash divided by volatility over the same period: higher means more return per unit of risk.
- Returns and risk figures are computed from daily adjusted prices and update with each market day. Past performance does not predict future results.