Relative Intelligence · Specialty Retail

How O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives
Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on ORLY alone. It places ORLY (O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.) against 10 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where ORLY stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.
Period covered: ORLY's full trading record, from April 1993 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 22, 2026.
Data as of October 22, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.
This page answers the following questions about ORLY
Key findings
Not AI-generatedThese key findings are generated by our proprietary relative intelligence engine, directly from the data on this page.
- Right nowORLY has gone against the market, falling 2.0% over the past 6 months while the S&P 500 rose 8.0%. Not every peer went the same way. Over the past 6 months, GPC (Genuine Parts) rose 16.7% and LKQ fell 26.7%. Consistency ↓
- Stock or market?ORLY rose 6.3% over the past 3 months, 5.7 points ahead of the specialty retail ETF XRT (State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF), which rose 0.6%. The S&P 500 rose 2.5%. Its specialty retail peers did not move as one over the past 3 months: AZO (AutoZone) rose 10.0%, while AAP (Advance Auto Parts) fell 15.4%.
- Past 1 to 3 yearsOver the past year, ORLY fell 9.1% while the S&P 500 rose 15.6%. The same gap shows up over 3 years (57.0% against 88.4%). By year ↓
- Long termORLY turned $10,000 into $49,400 over the past decade, against $41,600 in the S&P 500. ORLY's 10-year return of 394% puts it ahead of 81% of the stocks worth at least $300 million with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 316%. Growth of $10,000 ↓
- In a crashORLY fell less than the S&P 500 in five of seven sell-offs, but the 2015 China and oil sell-off broke the pattern: it fell 16.0%, more than the S&P 500's 12.8%. Crash tests ↓
- DiversificationOver 10 years, ORLY's beta versus the S&P 500 was 0.78: 86% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 66% of its losses in falling ones. ORLY is some diversification, but not a hedge: a correlation of 0.38 with the S&P 500 over 5 years and 0.38 with the total US market, less closely than 53% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Market capture ↓
- Better options
- Nearby categories and themes
- WMT (Walmart, discount retail) earned more for the risk it took than ORLY over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 25.7%, against 42.0% for ORLY.
- Whole market
- Few investments have done better on both counts: only 31 of the 3,641 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than ORLY with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them NVS (Novartis), RY (Royal Bank of Canada) and GLD (SPDR Gold Shares).
How much would $10,000 in ORLY have grown?
This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in ORLY over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of ORLY over the same span and ORLY's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.
- $10,000 invested in ORLY at the end of September 1997 would have grown to $2,252,599 by September 2026, more than the $132,907 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of ORLY, and AAPL finished highest, at $20,534,853.
Choose a period
From the end of September 1997 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 11 of the 1,042 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of ORLY; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- AAPL$21M+205,249% total · +30.1% a year
- AMZN$11M+114,749% total · +27.5% a year
- APH$3M+29,926% total · +21.7% a year
- SCCO$3M+26,680% total · +21.3% a year
- LRCX$2M+24,786% total · +21.0% a year
- ORLY$2M+22,426% total · +20.5% a year
- DORM$578,281+5,683% total · +15.0% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$132,907+1,229% total · +9.3% a year
- GPC$104,439+944% total · +8.4% a year
- SMP$32,123+221% total · +4.1% a year
From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 714 of the 3,630 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of ORLY; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- WMT$23,813+138% total · +18.9% a year
- PSMT$23,465+135% total · +18.6% a year
- ROST$22,648+126% total · +17.8% a year
- PAG$22,510+125% total · +17.6% a year
- COST$21,378+114% total · +16.4% a year
- ORLY$20,965+110% total · +16.0% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
- DORM$12,950+29.5% total · +5.3% a year
- GPC$11,985+19.8% total · +3.7% a year
- SMP$9,941−0.6% total · −0.1% a year
ORLY at a glance
This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.
- ORLY's deepest decline since it began trading in 1993 was 65.4%, from July 1999 to March 2000. It took nine months from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over 29 full calendar years, ORLY's best was 1998, when it returned 80.0%, and its worst was 2002, when it lost 30.9%. It lost money in four of those years.
- ORLY is 14.7% below its all-time high.
The company
- Market value
- $74B
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Price history from
- April 1993
Returns
- Past 1 year
- −9.1%total return
- Past 3 years
- +57.0%+16.2% a year
- Past 5 years
- +108%+15.8% a year
- Past 10 years
- +394%+17.3% a year
- Best calendar year
- +80.0%1998
- Worst calendar year
- −30.9%2002
- Losing years
- 4 of 29full calendar years
Risk
- Volatility
- 23.4%typical yearly swing, 5 years
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.75return per unit of risk, 5 years
- Worst decline ever
- −65.4%Jul 1999 to Mar 2000
- From its all-time high
- −14.7%below the peak
ORLY against the whole market
Where ORLY ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.
How does ORLY rank among all stocks?
This section ranks ORLY on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how ORLY stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.
- ORLY is among the steadier stocks: its price swings rank in the top 8% of the 2,897 stocks worth at least $300 million, where the top is the calmest.
Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.
| Measure | ORLY | Rank | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | −9.1% | 2,355 of 3,282 | bottom 29% |
| 3-year return | +57.0% | 1,474 of 3,016 | top 49% |
| 5-year return | +108% | 642 of 2,897 | top 22% |
| 10-year return | +394% | 421 of 2,201 | top 19% |
| Volatility, 5 years | 23.4% | 223 of 2,897 | top 8% |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 0.75 | 372 of 2,897 | top 13% |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −42.0% | 201 of 2,184 | top 9% |
What has beaten ORLY on both return and risk?
Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). ORLY sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than ORLY with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.
- Eight stocks and 23 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than ORLY over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is fewer than 1% of the 3,641 screened. Few investments beat it on both counts.
- Among those with at least half ORLY's swings, DXJ has the best return for its risk: 26.6% a year at 19.1% volatility, 19% less than ORLY's 23.4%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.34 against 0.75 for ORLY.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to ORLY; faint dots are 14 more of the 31 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,641 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.
- Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
- The whole market
- Others in the green region
Is there a better investment than ORLY?
Investments that beat ORLY over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, WMT (discount retail) earned more for the risk it took than ORLY over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 25.7%, against 42.0% for ORLY.
- Few investments have done better on both counts: only 31 of the 3,641 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than ORLY with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them NVS, RY and GLD.
How this works
The table below lists investments that beat ORLY over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks ORLY's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than ORLY follows the table.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than ORLY's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× ORLY's volatility counts as better.
These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than ORLY's.
| Investment | Why it is better | Past 5 years | Downside | Long run | Fit | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return?higher is better | Volatility?lower is calmer | Sharpe?return per unit of risk | Worst decline?past 10 years | 10Y returntotal | Corr. with ORLY?lower diversifies more | Expenseper year | |||
| +15.8% | 23.4% | 0.75 | −42.0% | +394% | 1.00 | — | |||
| +12.5% | 17.2% | 0.78 | −33.7% | +316% | 0.38 | 0.09% | |||
| Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 6 shownEverything else in Specialty Retail and the categories next to it (Apparel Retail, E-Commerce, Discount Retail, Home Furnishings), plus ORLY's specific themes. 7 of 96 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +21.1% | 22.6% | 0.97 | −25.7% | +521% | 0.35 | — | ||
| Higher return in most periods | +17.4% | 22.9% | 0.82 | −31.4% | +692% | 0.29 | — | ||
| Higher return in most periods | +17.8% | 29.5% | 0.71 | −51.4% | +311% | 0.21 | — | ||
PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc. · Auto Dealerships | Higher return in most periods | +16.5% | 31.8% | 0.64 | −60.0% | +510% | 0.27 | — | |
PSMTPriceSmart, Inc. · Discount Retail | Higher return in most periods | +19.7% | 28.1% | 0.78 | −53.2% | +121% | 0.14 | — | |
| Higher return, similar volatility | +19.8% | 22.3% | 0.93 | −42.5% | +357% | 0.39 | — | ||
| The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 259 of 3,556 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Dividend Equity | On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +16.9% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.21 | 0.40% | |
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +17.4% | 20.7% | 0.89 | −26.8% | +234% | 0.24 | — | ||
SPMOInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF · US Momentum Equity | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +18.1% | 20.9% | 0.91 | −30.9% | +485% | 0.38 | 0.13% | |
| On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | +17.5% | 18.2% | 0.98 | −40.0% | +361% | 0.08 | — | ||
| On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | +24.0% | 18.8% | 1.25 | −75.2% | +337% | 0.38 | — | ||
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +20.1% | 24.9% | 0.86 | −24.9% | +280% | 0.32 | — | ||
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +22.8% | 24.9% | 0.95 | −30.5% | +202% | 0.33 | — | ||
| Similar return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | +16.3% | 17.1% | 0.98 | −58.1% | +178% | 0.35 | — | ||
What these numbers mean for ORLY
- Annual return
- ORLY returned 15.8% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.5% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $20,800. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
- Volatility
- ORLY's volatility over the past 5 years was 23.4%, 1.4 times the S&P 500's 17.2%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, ORLY's return lands within 23.4% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
- Sharpe ratio
- ORLY's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.75, against 0.78 for the S&P 500, so ORLY earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
- Worst decline
- ORLY's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 42.0%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 42.0% fall takes a 72.4% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
- Correlation
- Over the past 5 years, ORLY's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.38 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against ORLY instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a ORLY holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 31 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than ORLY with less volatility
Out of 3,641 tested over 5 years. The strongest 20 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.
| # | Investment | Found in | Annual return | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline | 10Y return | Corr. with ORLY | Expense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Dividend Equity | Whole market | +16.9% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.21 | 0.40% |
| 2 | Whole market | +17.4% | 20.7% | 0.89 | −26.8% | +234% | 0.24 | — | |
| 3 | SPMOInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF · US Momentum Equity | Whole market | +18.1% | 20.9% | 0.91 | −30.9% | +485% | 0.38 | 0.13% |
| 4 | Whole market | +17.5% | 18.2% | 0.98 | −40.0% | +361% | 0.08 | — | |
| 5 | Whole market | +24.0% | 18.8% | 1.25 | −75.2% | +337% | 0.38 | — | |
| 6 | DBJPXtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF · Japan Equity | Whole market | +20.9% | 19.3% | 1.09 | −31.3% | +339% | 0.17 | 0.45% |
| 7 | DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · Japan Equity | Whole market | +26.6% | 19.1% | 1.34 | −39.1% | +415% | 0.15 | 0.48% |
| 8 | Whole market | +19.4% | 22.0% | 0.92 | −56.1% | +110% | 0.33 | — | |
| 9 | Whole market | +18.3% | 21.4% | 0.90 | −53.7% | +133% | 0.45 | — | |
| 10 | Whole market | +19.5% | 21.6% | 0.94 | −47.3% | +409% | 0.10 | — | |
| 11 | Whole market | +19.5% | 20.8% | 0.97 | −54.9% | +344% | 0.41 | — | |
| 12 | SDCIUSCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund · Broad Commodities | Whole market | +21.1% | 18.4% | 1.14 | −45.7% | — | 0.05 | 0.80% |
| 13 | Whole market | +17.1% | 19.0% | 0.93 | −26.4% | +206% | 0.04 | 0.40% | |
| 14 | TPYPTortoise North American Pipeline ETF · Energy Infrastructure | Whole market | +17.2% | 17.3% | 1.01 | −51.9% | +188% | 0.45 | 0.40% |
| 15 | EUFNiShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF · Financial Sector Equity | Whole market | +18.1% | 21.8% | 0.88 | −53.2% | +224% | 0.23 | 0.49% |
| 16 | EWPiShares MSCI Spain ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +19.2% | 20.3% | 0.97 | −46.4% | +190% | 0.21 | 0.50% |
| 17 | CRAKVanEck Oil Refiners ETF · Oil Refining | Whole market | +19.5% | 20.9% | 0.96 | −58.8% | +325% | 0.14 | 0.61% |
| 18 | ATMPBarclays ETN+ Select MLP ETN · Energy Infrastructure | Whole market | +21.7% | 21.5% | 1.02 | −70.3% | +174% | 0.39 | 0.95% |
| 19 | IGEiShares North American Natural Resources ETF · Natural Resources Equity | Whole market | +18.1% | 22.0% | 0.87 | −60.6% | +158% | 0.31 | 0.37% |
| 20 | ORIOld Republic International Corporation · Property & Casualty Insurance | Whole market | +17.3% | 22.2% | 0.83 | −47.8% | +353% | 0.39 | — |
ORLY against its popular alternatives
The investments people most often weigh against ORLY, compared period by period and year by year.
How do ORLY's risk and return compare with its alternatives?
This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at ORLY, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.
- None of the ten popular alternatives earned more than ORLY over the past 5 years with smaller price swings, so every higher return on the map came with a bumpier ride.
- Ten of the ten popular alternatives earned less than ORLY over the past 5 years while swinging more, the weaker corner of the map.
- Over the past 5 years, ORLY returned 15.8% a year, more than the S&P 500's 12.5%, with higher volatility (23.4% against 17.2%).
Green points earned more than ORLY with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.
All figures
| Investment | Annual return | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| ORLY This pageO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | +15.8% | 23.4% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +12.5% | 17.2% |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | +12.3% | 25.3% |
| DORM Dorman Products, Inc. | +4.5% | 33.8% |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | +4.4% | 36.0% |
| GPC Genuine Parts Company | +2.1% | 28.1% |
| SMP Standard Motor Products, Inc. | −1.3% | 32.2% |
| GNTX Gentex Corporation | −7.1% | 26.3% |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | −14.4% | 31.1% |
| MNRO Monro Inc. | −21.4% | 48.3% |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | −25.6% | 55.4% |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | −25.9% | 51.5% |
Has ORLY consistently beaten its popular alternatives?
This section compares ORLY with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than ORLY helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.
- None of the ten popular alternatives outperformed ORLY in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes. The closest was DORM.
A green cell means the alternative earned more than ORLY over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.
| Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Fund | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpehigher is better | Worst declinepast 10 years | Expense | Assets | Overlapsame sectors | ||
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (this page) | — | +7.2% | +6.3% | −2.0% | +1.8% | −9.1% | +57.0% | +108% | +394% | 23.4% | 0.75 | −42.0% | — | $74B | — |
| DORM Auto - PartsDorman Products, Inc. | 2/5 short1/3 long | +5.5% | −5.5% | +16.5% | +2.7% | −17.2% | +73.7% | +24.6% | +104% | 33.8% | 0.30 | −50.8% | — | $3.8B | — |
| GPC Auto - PartsGenuine Parts Company | 4/5 short0/3 long | −1.3% | +7.1% | +16.7% | +6.1% | −0.2% | +9.8% | +11.1% | +88.8% | 28.1% | 0.22 | −54.9% | — | $18B | — |
| SMP Auto - PartsStandard Motor Products, Inc. | 3/5 short0/3 long | 0.0% | −2.1% | +2.2% | +4.2% | −4.1% | +31.2% | −6.1% | +0.6% | 32.2% | 0.12 | −55.6% | — | $842M | — |
| AZO Specialty RetailAutoZone, Inc. | 2/5 short0/3 long | +13.0% | +10.0% | −8.9% | −1.0% | −18.2% | +34.4% | +78.4% | +334% | 25.3% | 0.59 | −42.1% | — | $53B | — |
| AAP Specialty RetailAdvance Auto Parts, Inc. | 2/5 short0/3 long | +10.1% | −15.4% | −20.9% | +22.6% | −15.0% | +2.5% | −77.3% | −61.8% | 55.4% | -0.27 | −86.4% | — | $2.8B | — |
| AN Auto - DealershipsAutoNation, Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −4.6% | −21.4% | −20.4% | −21.6% | −25.2% | +23.2% | +24.0% | +243% | 36.0% | 0.30 | −63.6% | — | $5.4B | — |
| GNTX Auto - PartsGentex Corporation | 0/5 short0/3 long | −2.0% | −8.6% | −3.5% | −6.3% | −15.3% | −23.7% | −30.8% | +52.7% | 26.3% | -0.15 | −43.0% | — | $4.6B | — |
| LKQ Auto - PartsLKQ Corporation | 0/5 short0/3 long | −4.7% | −9.8% | −26.7% | −22.7% | −22.7% | −48.0% | −54.1% | −21.7% | 31.1% | -0.34 | −68.0% | — | $5.7B | — |
| MNRO Auto - PartsMonro Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −0.8% | −13.9% | −16.0% | −24.1% | −17.1% | −32.1% | −70.0% | −66.5% | 48.3% | -0.26 | −84.2% | — | $443M | — |
| GT Auto - PartsThe Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 0/5 short0/3 long | −19.3% | −40.5% | −37.5% | −50.3% | −37.1% | −63.3% | −77.6% | −84.7% | 51.5% | -0.32 | −87.8% | — | $1.3B | — |
How did ORLY do year by year?
This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where ORLY ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with ORLY and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.
- None of the ten popular alternatives came out ahead of ORLY in most of the years they have in common.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, ORLY finished in the top quarter in 12 of 29 years and in the bottom quarter in two. In 2025, it ranked 3 of 11.
- ORLY finished ahead of the S&P 500 in 16 of its 29 full calendar years.
Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of ORLY; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places ORLY among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.
| Investment | Years ahead of ORLY | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY This pageO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | — | +15.4% | +24.8% | +12.6% | +19.5% | +56.0% | +3.3% | +27.3% | +43.1% | −13.6% | +9.9% | +31.5% | +49.6% | +44.0% | +11.8% | +32.3% | +58.7% | +23.9% | −5.1% | +0.9% | +0.5% | +42.0% | +16.3% | +53.0% | −30.9% | +36.8% | +24.4% | −9.0% | +80.0% | +64.1% |
| Rank among alternatives | Top quarter in 12 of 29 | 3 of 11 | 2 of 11 | 5 of 11 | 2 of 11 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 11 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 11 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 11 | 1 of 11 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 11 | 6 of 11 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 11 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 11 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 9 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 12 of 29 | +17.7% | +24.9% | +26.2% | −18.2% | +28.7% | +18.3% | +31.2% | −4.6% | +21.7% | +12.0% | +1.2% | +13.5% | +32.3% | +16.0% | +1.9% | +15.1% | +26.4% | −36.8% | +5.1% | +15.9% | +4.8% | +10.7% | +28.2% | −21.6% | −11.7% | −9.8% | +20.4% | +28.7% | +33.5% |
| DORM Dorman Products, Inc. | 12 of 29 | −4.9% | +55.3% | +3.1% | −28.4% | +30.2% | +14.7% | −15.9% | +47.2% | −16.3% | +53.9% | −1.7% | −13.9% | +58.6% | +100% | +1.9% | +131% | +18.9% | −7.8% | +32.0% | +14.1% | −24.1% | +61.2% | +53.3% | +45.8% | +319% | −64.3% | −43.4% | −14.8% | +26.4% |
| GPC Genuine Parts Company | 7 of 29 | +8.7% | −13.2% | −18.1% | +26.8% | +43.4% | −2.2% | +14.0% | +4.1% | +2.4% | +14.3% | −17.1% | +31.4% | +34.5% | +7.3% | +23.2% | +40.5% | +5.2% | −15.1% | +0.6% | +11.4% | +2.6% | +36.8% | +11.9% | −13.1% | +45.6% | +11.0% | −23.0% | +1.4% | +17.7% |
| SMP Standard Motor Products, Inc. | 12 of 29 | +23.4% | −19.5% | +18.0% | −31.8% | +32.3% | −23.2% | +12.0% | +9.8% | −14.2% | +42.3% | +1.4% | +5.1% | +68.0% | +13.2% | +49.5% | +64.4% | +147% | −55.0% | −43.7% | +68.8% | −39.6% | +33.1% | −3.5% | −3.9% | +94.6% | −52.4% | −32.0% | +7.0% | +65.0% |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | 10 of 29 | +5.9% | +23.8% | +4.8% | +17.6% | +76.8% | −0.5% | +42.1% | +17.8% | −9.9% | +6.5% | +19.8% | +29.5% | +34.8% | +9.1% | +19.2% | +72.5% | +13.3% | +16.3% | +3.8% | +25.9% | +0.5% | +7.2% | +20.6% | −1.6% | +152% | −11.8% | −1.9% | +13.6% | +5.5% |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | 8 of 24 | −15.0% | −21.1% | −57.6% | −36.5% | +54.7% | −1.2% | +1.9% | +58.2% | −40.9% | +12.5% | −5.4% | +44.2% | +53.4% | +4.2% | +5.7% | +64.1% | +21.0% | −10.8% | +7.5% | −17.6% | +49.2% | +7.3% | +66.4% | −1.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | 9 of 29 | +21.6% | +13.1% | +40.0% | −8.2% | +67.4% | +43.5% | +36.2% | −30.4% | +5.5% | −18.4% | −1.2% | +21.6% | +25.2% | +7.7% | +30.7% | +47.3% | +93.8% | −36.9% | −26.6% | −1.9% | +13.1% | +4.6% | +46.3% | +1.9% | +106% | −28.1% | −37.8% | −36.2% | −25.3% |
| GNTX Gentex Corporation | 12 of 29 | −17.4% | −10.7% | +21.7% | −20.4% | +4.2% | +19.2% | +46.3% | −1.6% | +8.5% | +25.8% | −9.7% | +11.7% | +79.5% | −34.8% | +1.7% | +69.4% | +110% | −48.8% | +16.8% | −18.3% | +7.4% | −14.8% | +40.1% | +18.4% | +43.4% | −32.9% | +38.8% | +48.6% | +33.3% |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | 9 of 22 | −15.0% | −20.9% | −8.6% | −9.3% | +71.1% | −1.3% | +50.5% | −41.7% | +32.7% | +3.4% | +5.4% | −14.6% | +56.0% | +40.3% | +32.5% | +15.9% | +68.2% | −44.6% | +83.0% | +32.7% | +72.5% | +12.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| MNRO Monro Inc. | 10 of 29 | −13.8% | −12.0% | −33.1% | −20.6% | +11.1% | −30.6% | +15.0% | +22.2% | +0.9% | −12.7% | +15.6% | +3.5% | +62.6% | −8.7% | +13.2% | +56.6% | +32.7% | +32.5% | −16.0% | +16.6% | +20.3% | +26.8% | +76.9% | +23.8% | +52.5% | +19.3% | +3.5% | −47.1% | −7.1% |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 8 of 29 | −2.7% | −37.1% | +41.1% | −52.4% | +95.4% | −29.1% | −20.8% | −35.4% | +6.1% | −4.5% | +15.3% | +20.9% | +73.1% | −2.5% | +19.6% | −16.0% | +136% | −78.8% | +34.4% | +20.8% | +18.5% | +86.6% | +15.3% | −70.3% | +8.0% | −13.4% | −43.0% | −19.1% | +26.3% |
Risk and diversification
How ORLY has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.
What were ORLY's worst declines?
A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents ORLY's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 1993, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.
- In all five of ORLY's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: ORLY fell 65.4% from July 1999 to March 2000, while the S&P 500 slipped only 0.3%.
- The longest climb back to a previous high took 12 months, after ORLY fell 40.6% from July 2016 to July 2017.
Green means ORLY fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.
| During | ORLY fell | S&P 500, same dates | Peak | Low | Time to the low | Back at the peak | Time to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No named crash | −65.4% | −0.3% | Jul 1999 | Mar 2000 | 8 months | Dec 2000 | 9 months |
| 2008 financial crisis | −45.3% | −43.9% | Jun 2007 | Oct 2008 | 16 months | Apr 2009 | 6 months |
| Covid crash | −42.0% | −27.8% | Nov 2019 | Mar 2020 | 4 months | Jul 2020 | 4 months |
| No named crash | −40.6% | +13.8% | Jul 2016 | Jul 2017 | 12 months | Jul 2018 | 12 months |
| Dot-com bust | −39.6% | −25.5% | Dec 2001 | Feb 2003 | 14 months | Jul 2003 | 5 months |
How did ORLY do in stock market crashes?
This section measures how far ORLY, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.
- ORLY fell less than the S&P 500 in seven of the ten crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when ORLY fell 39.8% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.
- None of its popular alternatives fell less than ORLY in most of the crashes they both traded through.
Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than ORLY.
| Investment | Held up better | 2023 regional bank crisisMar 2023 | 2022 bear marketJan 2022 | Covid crashFeb 2020 | Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018 | February 2018 volatility shockFeb 2018 | 2015 China and oil sell-offAug 2015 | 2011 euro debt crisisJul 2011 | 2010 flash crashMay 2010 | 2008 financial crisisOct 2007 | Dot-com bustMar 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY This pageO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | — | −1.5% | −23.0% | −34.0% | −8.7% | −2.4% | −16.0% | −9.4% | −1.3% | −39.8% | −34.0% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1 of 10 | −3.4% | −24.5% | −33.7% | −19.3% | −6.5% | −12.8% | −17.9% | −1.5% | −55.2% | −47.5% |
| DORM Dorman Products, Inc. | 1 of 10 | −3.4% | −29.7% | −28.3% | −16.2% | −5.3% | −23.1% | −33.6% | −4.6% | −55.8% | −55.6% |
| GPC Genuine Parts Company | 3 of 10 | −3.7% | −15.3% | −49.1% | −11.2% | −5.8% | −15.3% | −17.1% | −1.6% | −46.6% | −27.7% |
| SMP Standard Motor Products, Inc. | 2 of 10 | −9.6% | −39.0% | −30.2% | −17.4% | −3.1% | −24.3% | −33.8% | 0.0% | −85.2% | −57.8% |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | 4 of 10 | −1.6% | −21.4% | −37.0% | −9.3% | −4.3% | −12.8% | −9.2% | −1.1% | −36.9% | −29.0% |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | 0 of 9 | −5.9% | −33.7% | −47.3% | −19.4% | −4.2% | −30.9% | −13.2% | −1.0% | −45.7% | — |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | 0 of 10 | −7.7% | −23.9% | −53.6% | −25.1% | −7.9% | −36.4% | −22.9% | −1.5% | −77.0% | −49.0% |
| GNTX Gentex Corporation | 0 of 10 | −6.0% | −33.3% | −35.4% | −16.8% | −3.7% | −20.2% | −28.6% | −2.0% | −69.3% | −57.1% |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | 0 of 9 | −7.2% | −28.1% | −59.1% | −27.2% | −5.1% | −23.5% | −23.3% | −4.0% | −62.8% | — |
| MNRO Monro Inc. | 3 of 10 | −3.8% | −34.1% | −32.8% | −21.4% | −5.2% | −18.4% | −19.8% | −2.4% | −33.8% | −29.9% |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 0 of 10 | −10.9% | −58.2% | −60.1% | −20.9% | −12.7% | −24.6% | −47.6% | −5.2% | −88.7% | −76.7% |
How closely does ORLY move with the S&P 500?
Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares ORLY with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.
- Over the past 10 years, ORLY captured 86% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 66% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 0.78. That is a defensive profile: it gave up some of the market's upside in exchange for smaller losses.
- Only AZO had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than ORLY's 1.30, out of ten popular alternatives with the same record.
- AZO took just 54% of the S&P 500's losses, against 66% for ORLY, while still keeping 72% of its gains.
Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than ORLY's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.
| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Capture ratio | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY This pageO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | 86% | 66% | 1.30 | 0.78 |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | 72% | 54% | 1.34 | 0.63 |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | 106% | 127% | 0.83 | 1.16 |
| DORM Dorman Products, Inc. | 73% | 100% | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| GPC Genuine Parts Company | 77% | 116% | 0.66 | 0.87 |
| GNTX Gentex Corporation | 63% | 98% | 0.64 | 0.92 |
| SMP Standard Motor Products, Inc. | 47% | 94% | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | 74% | 163% | 0.45 | 1.25 |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 77% | 263% | 0.29 | 1.63 |
| MNRO Monro Inc. | 44% | 165% | 0.26 | 1.09 |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | 40% | 158% | 0.25 | 1.19 |
What diversifies ORLY?
Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with ORLY's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing ORLY with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.
- Moving a fifth of the money in ORLY into GLD would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 18% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (+16.0% for ORLY alone, +17.1% for the mix).
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and EMLP have moved largely independently of ORLY over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.46 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
- Among large stocks, CAH, CLS and MCK have moved largely independently of ORLY over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.32 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which ORLY lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% ORLY and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.
ETFs
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2017 | 2008 | 2002 | 1999 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (this page) | 1.00 | +108% | 0.75 | −13.6% | −5.1% | −30.9% | −9.0% | 22.2% | +16.0% |
| LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.21 | +119% | 1.48 | +10.0% | — | — | — | 18.2% | +16.6% |
| DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.15 | +225% | 1.34 | +22.8% | −20.8% | — | — | 18.3% | +18.6% |
| EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.46 | +103% | 1.06 | +1.1% | — | — | — | 19.3% | +16.2% |
| FDL Dividend & IncomeFirst Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund | 0.40 | +97.6% | 1.02 | +12.0% | −31.1% | — | — | 19.3% | +15.9% |
| DBEF InternationalXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.27 | +83.6% | 0.95 | +16.7% | — | — | — | 18.5% | +16.0% |
| SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.13 | +304% | 0.94 | +38.5% | −44.7% | −47.0% | — | 19.9% | +21.4% |
| XLE EnergyState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.29 | +178% | 0.94 | −0.9% | −39.0% | −14.8% | +18.1% | 19.9% | +18.1% |
| GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares | 0.04 | +120% | 0.93 | +12.8% | +4.9% | — | — | 18.2% | +17.1% |
Stocks
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2017 | 2008 | 2002 | 1999 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (this page) | 1.00 | +108% | 0.75 | −13.6% | −5.1% | −30.9% | −9.0% | 22.2% | +16.0% |
| CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc. | 0.27 | +471% | 1.54 | −12.7% | −39.6% | −8.3% | −36.8% | 19.9% | +20.8% |
| CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc. | 0.06 | +2,780% | 1.43 | −11.6% | −20.5% | −65.1% | +350% | 21.8% | +34.3% |
| MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation | 0.32 | +397% | 1.41 | +12.0% | −40.4% | −27.2% | −71.3% | 20.0% | +20.2% |
| FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.36 | +1,452% | 1.41 | +32.1% | −15.2% | −9.4% | −58.7% | 22.6% | +29.6% |
| MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 0.17 | +660% | 1.39 | +34.8% | — | — | — | 19.9% | +23.1% |
Common questions
What was ORLY's worst drawdown?
ORLY's deepest decline since it began trading in 1993 was 65.4%, from July 1999 to March 2000. It took nine months from the low to climb back to its old high.
What were ORLY's best and worst years?
Over 29 full calendar years, ORLY's best year was 1998, when it returned 80.0%. Its worst was 2002, with a return of -30.9%.
Is there a better investment than ORLY?
Looking beyond its popular alternatives, WMT (discount retail) earned more for the risk it took than ORLY over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 25.7%, against 42.0% for ORLY. Few investments have done better on both counts: only 31 of the 3,641 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than ORLY with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them NVS, RY and GLD.
Is ORLY more volatile than the S&P 500?
Yes. ORLY's volatility over the past 5 years was 23.4%, 1.4 times the S&P 500's 17.2%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, ORLY's return lands within 23.4% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.
What is ORLY's Sharpe ratio?
ORLY's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.75, against 0.78 for the S&P 500, so ORLY earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.
How correlated is ORLY with the S&P 500?
Over the past 5 years, ORLY's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.38 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against ORLY instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a ORLY holding.
What are the best alternatives to ORLY?
None of the ten popular alternatives we compared outperformed ORLY in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, which says more about ORLY's strength than about its alternatives.
Did ORLY outperform the S&P 500?
ORLY finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 16 of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +15.4%, against +17.7% for the index.
How did ORLY do in stock market crashes?
ORLY fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in seven of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in one. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when ORLY fell 39.8% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.
What diversifies ORLY?
These had a low correlation with ORLY over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.21), DXJ (correlation 0.15) and EMLP (correlation 0.46); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.27), CLS (correlation 0.06) and MCK (correlation 0.32). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.
How we measure
- Short-term periods are 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y; long-term periods are 3Y, 5Y, 10Y. An investment outperformed in a period when its total return, with dividends reinvested, was higher than ORLY's. Returns within 0.5 points or 3% of ORLY's, whichever is larger, count as a tie.
- "Qualified" means outperforming in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period.
- Popular alternatives are the funds and stocks most often compared with this one. We include only those that trade today, are not leveraged or inverse, and hold at least $200 million.
- Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over 5 years, a measure of how much the price typically swings in a year. The Sharpe ratio is the return above cash for each unit of that volatility.
- A decline, or drawdown, runs from a peak to the lowest close before the next high. The worst decline ever uses all the price history we have; comparisons between funds use the past 10 years so that younger funds are judged on the same stretch.
- Sector overlap is the share of assets two funds hold in the same sectors. Correlation and the mixed-portfolio figures use monthly returns.
- Upside and downside capture follow Morningstar's definition: the compound monthly return in the months the S&P 500 rose (or fell), divided by the S&P 500's compound return in those months. Beta measures how strongly monthly returns have moved with the S&P 500. All three use the same window for every investment.
- Figures are computed from daily adjusted prices and update after each trading day. Past performance does not predict future results.