# ETFs and Stocks That Consistently Outperformed TLT (Long-Term Treasuries)

> Source: BetterThanSPY research, https://betterthanspy.com/research/etfs-and-stocks-that-outperform-tlt
> Data as of October 22, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) screened against the entire market of over 10,000 stocks and ETFs over 8 periods from 1 month to 10 years, with dividends reinvested. To make the list, an investment had to outperform TLT in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period. Returns in the tables are total returns over each period; volatility and Sharpe ratio cover 5 years.

## Key findings

- How hard it was to top TLT: It was relatively easy for eligible investments to keep ahead of Long-Term Treasuries. Of 957 eligible ETFs, 790, or 83%, outperformed in a majority of both the short-term and long-term periods, and 512 were all-weather performers. Among 1,502 eligible stocks, 926, or 62%, cleared that bar, while 563 were all-weather.
- Who came out ahead across the three groups:
  - Popular alternatives: SPY, VTI, SHV, and AGG each outperformed in 4 of 5 short-term periods and 3 of 3 long-term periods, making them all-weather performers. VB and JNK also cleared the consistency bar, with 3 of 5 short-term and 3 of 3 long-term periods, but did not qualify as all-weather. No same-index funds were excluded.
  - Top ETFs: Broad Market funds led, accounting for 13 of the top 15 ETFs shown in the table. EQL, IGV, BNO, and SPGP each outperformed in 5 of 5 short-term and 3 of 3 long-term periods.
  - Top stocks: A total of 926 stocks made the consistency cut. The top stocks shown include healthcare names NTRA and LLY, technology company SHOP, and industrial company BWLP, each of which outperformed in 5 of 5 short-term and 3 of 3 long-term periods.
- The risk trade-off: Over 5 years, the top ETFs had median volatility of 17.0%, similar to TLT's 15.7%, while about half were less volatile. All 15 had higher Sharpe ratios than TLT. The top stocks were much bumpier, with median volatility of 51.5%, roughly double or more than TLT's, but all 10 had higher Sharpe ratios.

## How popular alternatives compare

| Investment | Status | Periods outperformed | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatility | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TLT: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (benchmark) |  |  | +0.4% | −1.2% | −3.9% | −3.2% | −7.4% | +9.9% | −32.4% | −18.2% | 15.7% | -0.42 |
| [SPY](https://betterthanspy.com/research/spy): State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | Made the list | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | −1.2% | +2.5% | +8.0% | +12.7% | +15.6% | +88.4% | +80.3% | +316% | 17.2% | 0.78 |
| [VTI](https://betterthanspy.com/research/vti): Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Made the list | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | −1.4% | +1.9% | +7.3% | +12.4% | +15.3% | +87.3% | +71.5% | +298% | 17.5% | 0.71 |
| SHV: iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Made the list | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +0.3% | +0.9% | +1.8% | +2.8% | +3.6% | +13.9% | +19.4% | +26.1% | 0.3% | 12.12 |
| SHY: iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Made the list | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +0.5% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.7% | +1.3% | +12.3% | +9.8% | +18.0% | 2.0% | 0.93 |
| [AGG](https://betterthanspy.com/research/agg): iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | Made the list | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +0.2% | −0.5% | −1.5% | −0.8% | −1.2% | +16.8% | −0.6% | +14.4% | 6.2% | 0.01 |
| [BND](https://betterthanspy.com/research/bnd): Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | Made the list | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +0.3% | −0.7% | −1.7% | −1.0% | −1.4% | +16.3% | −1.0% | +14.3% | 6.1% | 0.00 |
| TLH: iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Made the list | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +0.3% | −0.6% | −2.9% | −2.4% | −5.0% | +14.7% | −21.1% | −10.0% | 12.6% | -0.32 |
| [VB](https://betterthanspy.com/research/vb): Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap ETF | Made the list | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −1.0% | −2.3% | +2.1% | +11.4% | +15.1% | +68.6% | +35.2% | +179% | 20.6% | 0.40 |
| JNK: State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF | Made the list | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −1.8% | −1.7% | −1.3% | 0.0% | +1.6% | +27.6% | +17.0% | +49.9% | 7.6% | 0.46 |
| HYG: iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | Made the list | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −1.6% | −1.6% | −1.3% | −0.1% | +1.4% | +27.5% | +17.7% | +49.9% | 7.5% | 0.47 |
| LQD: iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | Made the list | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −0.3% | −1.0% | −2.7% | −1.9% | −3.0% | +20.0% | −3.5% | +22.0% | 8.7% | -0.04 |
| [IEF](https://betterthanspy.com/research/ief): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Made the list | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | +0.4% | −1.3% | −2.9% | −2.5% | −3.3% | +13.1% | −7.0% | +4.1% | 7.7% | -0.15 |
| [SGOV](https://betterthanspy.com/research/sgov): iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | Made the list | 4/5 short, 2/3 long | +0.3% | +0.6% | +1.5% | +2.6% | +3.4% | +13.8% | +20.3% | — | 0.3% | 13.25 |

## ETFs that consistently outperformed TLT

| Investment | Periods outperformed | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatility | Sharpe | Expense | Assets |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TLT: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (benchmark) |  | +0.4% | −1.2% | −3.9% | −3.2% | −7.4% | +9.9% | −32.4% | −18.2% | 15.7% | -0.42 |  |  |
| EQL: ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +1.6% | +2.3% | +5.5% | +12.4% | +14.3% | +77.4% | +87.2% | +385% | 14.5% | 0.94 | 0.19% | $781M |
| IGV: iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +1.8% | +22.1% | +22.5% | +6.0% | −4.2% | +60.5% | +25.5% | +381% | 28.9% | 0.30 | 0.38% | $15B |
| BNO: United States Brent Oil Fund LP | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +19.0% | +34.0% | +36.4% | +144% | +139% | +118% | +205% | +359% | 37.1% | 0.79 | 1.15% | $768M |
| SPGP: Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +2.4% | +2.3% | +5.7% | +9.0% | +10.1% | +45.1% | +42.6% | +310% | 18.6% | 0.48 | 0.34% | $2.1B |
| WTV: WisdomTree U.S. Value Fund | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +2.9% | +3.5% | +11.1% | +16.8% | +20.7% | +92.0% | +89.0% | +306% | 17.0% | 0.84 | 0.12% | $3.2B |
| XSW: State Street SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +6.3% | +26.3% | +36.2% | +16.2% | +8.6% | +77.8% | +17.6% | +301% | 29.7% | 0.26 | 0.35% | $488M |
| EQWL: Invesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +0.9% | +3.1% | +10.2% | +13.4% | +16.1% | +83.1% | +73.9% | +294% | 15.0% | 0.82 | 0.30% | $2.8B |
| FNDX: Schwab Fundamental U.S. Large Company ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +2.3% | +4.2% | +12.3% | +21.0% | +26.2% | +90.0% | +89.3% | +292% | 14.9% | 0.93 | 0.25% | $28B |
| RTH: VanEck Retail ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +6.3% | +6.0% | +1.7% | +9.3% | +10.5% | +70.1% | +54.2% | +290% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 0.35% | $249M |
| RWL: Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +3.2% | +4.5% | +12.2% | +18.9% | +23.3% | +85.7% | +90.3% | +287% | 14.4% | 0.97 | 0.39% | $10B |
| FNDB: Schwab Fundamental U.S. Broad Market Index ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +2.2% | +3.5% | +11.5% | +20.3% | +25.4% | +88.0% | +85.4% | +285% | 15.1% | 0.90 | 0.25% | $1.5B |
| MOAT: VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +3.9% | +8.3% | +11.2% | +9.3% | +12.8% | +60.2% | +57.2% | +278% | 18.4% | 0.59 | 0.46% | $12B |
| CAPE: DoubleLine Shiller CAPE U.S. Equities ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +2.2% | −0.2% | +0.6% | +1.9% | +1.6% | +45.8% | +55.3% | +276% | 19.1% | 0.56 | 0.65% | $211M |
| QUS: State Street SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +2.5% | +5.6% | +10.2% | +14.0% | +16.7% | +73.5% | +69.3% | +276% | 14.2% | 0.81 | 0.15% | $1.6B |
| VLU: State Street SPDR S&P 1500 Value Tilt ETF | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +1.2% | +2.5% | +8.7% | +17.9% | +22.9% | +86.3% | +79.5% | +274% | 15.2% | 0.85 | 0.12% | $781M |

## Stocks that consistently outperformed TLT

| Investment | Periods outperformed | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatility | Sharpe | Market cap |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TLT: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (benchmark) |  | +0.4% | −1.2% | −3.9% | −3.2% | −7.4% | +9.9% | −32.4% | −18.2% | 15.7% | -0.42 |  |
| [NTRA](https://betterthanspy.com/research/ntra): Natera, Inc. | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +2.7% | +51.9% | +93.2% | +75.4% | +113% | +901% | +249% | +3,934% | 57.6% | 0.73 | $58B |
| [SHOP](https://betterthanspy.com/research/shop): Shopify Inc. | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +14.3% | +42.6% | +27.9% | +7.4% | +4.2% | +231% | +18.4% | +3,745% | 66.9% | 0.38 | $219B |
| BWLP: BW LPG Limited | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +1.2% | +20.7% | +46.1% | +116% | +129% | +232% | +966% | +2,648% | 50.9% | 1.19 | $3.8B |
| MEDP: Medpace Holdings, Inc. | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +3.8% | +23.8% | +28.6% | +14.5% | +19.6% | +187% | +250% | +2,003% | 52.1% | 0.73 | $18B |
| [LLY](https://betterthanspy.com/research/lly): Eli Lilly and Company | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +11.7% | +12.5% | +42.3% | +21.5% | +61.9% | +131% | +461% | +1,870% | 32.8% | 1.22 | $1.2T |
| CDNA: CareDx, Inc | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +22.4% | +83.1% | +235% | +261% | +374% | +1,227% | −4.1% | +1,687% | 79.5% | 0.39 | $3.6B |
| COKE: Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +12.5% | +16.7% | +15.1% | +44.1% | +67.4% | +257% | +468% | +1,564% | 38.0% | 1.11 | $14B |
| [URI](https://betterthanspy.com/research/uri): United Rentals, Inc. | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +6.5% | +7.5% | +38.9% | +32.3% | +13.0% | +179% | +213% | +1,407% | 39.1% | 0.78 | $69B |
| [MPC](https://betterthanspy.com/research/mpc): Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +17.9% | +45.8% | +108% | +181% | +148% | +226% | +660% | +1,314% | 33.4% | 1.39 | $129B |
| CVI: CVR Energy, Inc. | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +12.5% | +68.6% | +88.5% | +134% | +62.6% | +105% | +289% | +1,306% | 52.4% | 0.79 | $5.9B |

## What stands out

TLT holds long-term Treasury bonds, while the leading investments here span broad-market funds, software, commodities, healthcare, technology, and industrials. That range points to a broad set of sources for returns, rather than a single winning theme. The popular alternatives also show that both stock funds and shorter-term bond funds kept ahead across all 3 long-term periods, even though some had a less consistent short-term record.

The stock leaders in the table came from several sectors, with healthcare appearing often, but the list is still only the top 10 stocks shown, not every stock that qualified. The 5-year risk figures show a clear difference in the ride: the leading ETFs had volatility similar to TLT, while the leading stocks were much more volatile. Still, every ETF and stock in those risk groups had a higher Sharpe ratio, a measure of return relative to risk, than TLT.

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