# ETFs and Stocks That Consistently Outperformed COST (Costco)

> Source: BetterThanSPY research, https://betterthanspy.com/research/etfs-and-stocks-that-outperform-cost
> Data as of October 22, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation) screened against the entire market of over 10,000 stocks and ETFs over 8 periods from 1 month to 10 years, with dividends reinvested. To make the list, an investment had to outperform COST in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period. Returns in the tables are total returns over each period; volatility and Sharpe ratio cover 5 years.

## Key findings

- How hard it was to top COST: Outperforming Costco across both short- and long-term periods was uncommon among the over 10,000 stocks and ETFs screened. Of 958 eligible ETFs, 20, or 2.1%, met the consistency rule, and none were all-weather. Of 1,501 eligible stocks, 144, or 9.6%, were consistent, including 21 all-weather stocks.
- Who came out ahead across the three groups:
  - Popular alternatives: WMT fell short with 2 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term periods ahead. TGT, DG, and BJ each topped COST in 4 of 5 short-term periods but none of the long-term periods. SPY also fell short, with 2 of 5 short-term and none of the long-term periods ahead. No same-index clones were excluded.
  - Top ETFs: Technology led the ETF results, with 7 of the top ETFs in that category. Semiconductor funds SMH, SOXX, and FTXL each outperformed in all 3 long-term periods and 3 of 5 short-term periods; IYW also had that record. In total, 20 ETFs met the consistency rule.
  - Top stocks: 144 stocks met the consistency rule, and 21 were all-weather. Standouts included energy companies MPC and PBR-A, consumer discretionary company ANF, and healthcare company LLY. Each outperformed in all 3 long-term periods and all 5 short-term periods.
- The risk trade-off: The top ETFs and stocks generally had larger price swings than COST. Over 5 years, the top ETFs had median volatility of 30.6% versus 22.9% for COST, while the top stocks had median volatility of 44.2%. Only 4 of the top 15 ETFs had a higher Sharpe ratio than COST, compared with 6 of the top 10 stocks, so more of the stocks delivered higher risk-adjusted returns.

## How popular alternatives compare

| Investment | Status | Periods outperformed | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatility | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| COST: Costco Wholesale Corporation (benchmark) |  |  | +13.2% | +10.0% | +1.8% | +19.7% | +8.4% | +91.8% | +123% | +692% | 22.9% | 0.82 |
| [WMT](https://betterthanspy.com/research/wmt): Walmart Inc. | Fell short | 2/5 short, 2/3 long | +10.0% | +11.0% | −6.4% | +8.1% | +14.0% | +133% | +161% | +521% | 22.6% | 0.97 |
| [TGT](https://betterthanspy.com/research/tgt): Target Corporation | Fell short | 4/5 short, 0/3 long | −0.6% | +15.5% | +23.1% | +61.7% | +75.0% | +64.3% | −27.8% | +213% | 36.1% | 0.00 |
| DG: Dollar General Corporation | Fell short | 4/5 short, 0/3 long | +14.0% | +16.3% | +14.1% | +3.6% | +36.9% | +27.1% | −31.1% | +134% | 37.1% | -0.01 |
| BJ: BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | Fell short | 4/5 short, 0/3 long | +17.2% | +16.1% | +11.8% | +16.0% | +13.5% | +55.3% | +73.9% | — | 32.5% | 0.51 |
| [SPY](https://betterthanspy.com/research/spy): State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | Fell short | 2/5 short, 0/3 long | −1.2% | +2.5% | +8.0% | +12.7% | +15.6% | +88.4% | +80.3% | +316% | 17.2% | 0.78 |
| [KR](https://betterthanspy.com/research/kr): The Kroger Co. | Fell short | 2/5 short, 0/3 long | +15.9% | +18.8% | +0.9% | +9.7% | +1.2% | +67.5% | +88.0% | +168% | 27.4% | 0.60 |
| VDC: Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF | Fell short | 2/5 short, 0/3 long | +8.8% | +7.4% | +8.8% | +17.4% | +14.3% | +47.4% | +48.0% | +131% | 13.6% | 0.65 |
| XLP: State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF | Fell short | 2/5 short, 0/3 long | +8.8% | +7.3% | +11.1% | +18.1% | +16.0% | +45.4% | +44.1% | +124% | 13.8% | 0.60 |
| PEJ: Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF | Fell short | 2/5 short, 0/3 long | +6.0% | +1.4% | +7.4% | +8.1% | +11.7% | +87.8% | +31.6% | +90.0% | 22.7% | 0.36 |
| RTH: VanEck Retail ETF | Fell short | 1/5 short, 0/3 long | +6.3% | +6.0% | +1.7% | +9.3% | +10.5% | +70.1% | +54.2% | +290% | 17.0% | 0.60 |
| XRT: State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF | Fell short | 1/5 short, 0/3 long | +6.5% | +0.6% | +2.7% | +4.5% | +5.9% | +57.9% | +2.0% | +139% | 26.8% | 0.15 |
| XLY: State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF | Fell short | 0/5 short, 0/3 long | +2.4% | +1.1% | −2.9% | −2.2% | −2.3% | +55.3% | +24.5% | +218% | 24.1% | 0.30 |
| FND: Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | Fell short | 0/5 short, 0/3 long | −1.9% | −11.1% | −6.8% | −23.5% | −32.4% | −41.4% | −64.6% | — | 47.1% | -0.21 |

## ETFs that consistently outperformed COST

| Investment | Periods outperformed | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatility | Sharpe | Expense | Assets |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| COST: Costco Wholesale Corporation (benchmark) |  | +13.2% | +10.0% | +1.8% | +19.7% | +8.4% | +91.8% | +123% | +692% | 22.9% | 0.82 |  |  |
| [SMH](https://betterthanspy.com/research/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −13.8% | −10.8% | +9.8% | +40.2% | +55.0% | +272% | +304% | +1,570% | 37.0% | 0.94 | 0.35% | $66B |
| [SOXX](https://betterthanspy.com/research/soxx): iShares Semiconductor ETF | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −17.0% | −14.3% | +10.3% | +51.9% | +68.0% | +219% | +221% | +1,297% | 39.0% | 0.80 | 0.33% | $39B |
| FTXL: First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −16.0% | −12.2% | +9.3% | +56.8% | +81.8% | +234% | +220% | +1,019% | 39.0% | 0.79 | 0.60% | $1.2B |
| IYW: iShares U.S. Technology ETF | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −6.4% | +2.4% | +16.3% | +24.7% | +26.1% | +138% | +135% | +773% | 26.7% | 0.78 | 0.37% | $24B |
| [VGT](https://betterthanspy.com/research/vgt): Vanguard Information Technology ETF | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −6.1% | +2.7% | +15.4% | +25.9% | +26.7% | +135% | +130% | +753% | 26.1% | 0.77 | 0.09% | $178B |
| [XLK](https://betterthanspy.com/research/xlk): State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −7.1% | +1.3% | +15.6% | +26.8% | +28.4% | +126% | +139% | +741% | 26.1% | 0.80 | 0.08% | $125B |
| FTEC: Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF | 3/5 short, 3/3 long | −6.1% | +2.6% | +15.4% | +25.9% | +26.9% | +136% | +132% | +737% | 26.1% | 0.78 | 0.08% | $22B |
| BNO: United States Brent Oil Fund LP | 5/5 short, 2/3 long | +19.0% | +34.0% | +36.4% | +144% | +139% | +118% | +205% | +359% | 37.1% | 0.79 | 1.15% | $768M |
| UGA: United States Gasoline Fund, LP | 4/5 short, 2/3 long | −0.6% | +16.0% | +32.8% | +132% | +125% | +117% | +227% | +401% | 35.1% | 0.85 | 1.08% | $167M |
| CRAK: VanEck Oil Refiners ETF | 4/5 short, 2/3 long | +0.5% | +15.8% | +36.4% | +69.7% | +74.3% | +118% | +143% | +325% | 20.9% | 0.96 | 0.61% | $810M |
| DBE: Invesco DB Energy Fund | 4/5 short, 2/3 long | +11.4% | +26.4% | +33.5% | +130% | +123% | +98.0% | +149% | +268% | 30.6% | 0.75 | 0.79% | $132M |
| USO: United States Oil Fund, LP | 4/5 short, 2/3 long | +12.8% | +23.4% | +25.6% | +136% | +130% | +106% | +180% | +77.7% | 37.7% | 0.74 | 0.86% | $1.9B |
| XSD: State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF | 3/5 short, 2/3 long | −15.4% | −14.6% | +2.6% | +35.0% | +36.6% | +158% | +121% | +805% | 40.9% | 0.59 | 0.35% | $2.7B |
| IXN: iShares Global Tech ETF | 3/5 short, 2/3 long | −8.8% | −0.5% | +14.3% | +28.7% | +31.1% | +140% | +137% | +693% | 26.2% | 0.79 | 0.37% | $9.1B |
| EWT: iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | 3/5 short, 2/3 long | −9.7% | +2.3% | +20.7% | +60.6% | +67.3% | +187% | +147% | +448% | 24.3% | 0.87 | 0.59% | $12B |

## Stocks that consistently outperformed COST

| Investment | Periods outperformed | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatility | Sharpe | Market cap |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| COST: Costco Wholesale Corporation (benchmark) |  | +13.2% | +10.0% | +1.8% | +19.7% | +8.4% | +91.8% | +123% | +692% | 22.9% | 0.82 |  |
| [MPC](https://betterthanspy.com/research/mpc): Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +17.9% | +45.8% | +108% | +181% | +148% | +226% | +660% | +1,314% | 33.4% | 1.39 | $129B |
| ANF: Abercrombie & Fitch Co. | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +18.6% | +68.2% | +74.7% | +30.6% | +136% | +169% | +323% | +1,132% | 62.9% | 0.77 | $6.9B |
| [PBR-A](https://betterthanspy.com/research/pbr-a): Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | 5/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +20.9% | +41.0% | +27.3% | +115% | +127% | +146% | +751% | +733% | 37.4% | 1.34 | $155B |
| [NTRA](https://betterthanspy.com/research/ntra): Natera, Inc. | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +2.7% | +51.9% | +93.2% | +75.4% | +113% | +901% | +249% | +3,934% | 57.6% | 0.73 | $58B |
| [FTNT](https://betterthanspy.com/research/ftnt): Fortinet, Inc. | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | −0.7% | +11.6% | +98.6% | +122% | +104% | +208% | +158% | +2,668% | 44.8% | 0.65 | $127B |
| BWLP: BW LPG Limited | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +1.2% | +20.7% | +46.1% | +116% | +129% | +232% | +966% | +2,648% | 50.9% | 1.19 | $3.8B |
| [LLY](https://betterthanspy.com/research/lly): Eli Lilly and Company | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +11.7% | +12.5% | +42.3% | +21.5% | +61.9% | +131% | +461% | +1,870% | 32.8% | 1.22 | $1.2T |
| LPG: Dorian LPG Ltd. | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | −3.9% | +19.7% | +49.2% | +123% | +107% | +123% | +817% | +1,827% | 43.6% | 1.24 | $2.2B |
| COKE: Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | +12.5% | +16.7% | +15.1% | +44.1% | +67.4% | +257% | +468% | +1,564% | 38.0% | 1.11 | $14B |
| CORT: Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated | 4/5 short, 3/3 long, all-weather | −8.5% | +18.3% | +131% | +181% | +46.0% | +294% | +474% | +1,434% | 76.0% | 0.80 | $12B |

## What stands out

The ETF leaders were concentrated in technology, especially semiconductor funds such as SMH, SOXX, and FTXL. Their record extended across all 3 long-term periods, rather than relying only on recent gains. The stock leaders were more varied, spanning energy, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and other sectors. MPC, ANF, PBR-A, and LLY topped COST in every short- and long-term period shown, though their results came with company-specific risks.

The risk figures show that the higher returns often came with a bumpier ride. The top ETFs had moderately higher median volatility than COST, while the top stocks had roughly double or more the benchmark's volatility. Their median Sharpe ratios point to a difference: the top ETF group was slightly below COST, while the top stock group was higher. Still, only a minority of ETFs and about half of the top stocks had higher Sharpe ratios, so the reward for taking more risk was not consistent.

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- Full page: https://betterthanspy.com/research/etfs-and-stocks-that-outperform-cost
- All research pages: https://betterthanspy.com/llms.txt